Russia: heading for war with Ukraine?

“Ukraine and Russia stand once again on the brink of open war,” said the Financial Times. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin last week accused Ukrainian special forces of plotting “terrorist” attacks in Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014. He claimed that one soldier and one agent in the FSB, its intelligence service, had been killed in clashes at the border with Ukrainian “saboteurs”. Ukraine said the accusations were a “fantasy”, but Putin vowed vengeance. “Two soldiers died, we cannot pass this by,” he declared. The signals are ominous, said Michael Weiss on The Daily Beast. The war in Ukraine has been “frozen but oven-ready” for nearly a year, limited to small flare-ups between Russian-backed separatists in the east and Ukrainian forces. Now “another big offensive” may be coming. Columns of armoured personnel carriers and military vehicles have been spotted arriving in Crimea on ferries from Russia. Ukraine has placed its forces on high alert.

Russia has a record of launching attacks in August, “when the world’s attention is distracted”, said The Times. But it seems unlikely that the Kremlin would risk another war now, when it already faces sanctions and a deteriorating economy. It seems more likely that Putin has “manufactured an external crisis because he is under pressure at home”. There are parliamentary elections next month, and though opposition is limited, complaints are growing. “Russians have stoically put up with a sharp drop in living standards, a fall in the rouble and consequent curbs on foreign travel. But they deeply resent the very high levels of corruption.” So Putin may be seeking to give his party a boost by acting as the nation’s staunch defender. The incident was probably also designed to “raise the stakes before the upcoming negotiations over the Russian-Ukrainian conflict”, said Maxim Trudolyubov in The Moscow Times. Germany and France, brokering the deal, “will now have to coax Moscow into returning to the negotiating table”; Putin will ask for concessions before talks begin.

Besides, it would make no sense for Russia to attack Ukraine from Crimea, said Kim Sengupta in The Independent. Russian fighters would have to advance across a narrow isthmus. “This time the Ukrainian forces, some trained by the West, are prepared.” An offensive “would lead to massive casualties, something Putin has shown great reluctance to risk”, said Adrian Karatnycky on Politico. It would also end any chance of sanctions being lifted. Rather than being a new stage in the conflict, Russia’s allegations are more likely just the latest salvo in its long campaign to destabilise Ukraine.