Brexit: should the doom-mongers recant?

Soaring unemployment; boarded up high streets; tumbling financial markets. That was the dystopian future we were told to expect, not only in the run up to the EU referendum, but also in its immediate aftermath, as disappointed Remainers comforted themselves with the thought that the Leavers would soon be overcome by an acute case of buyer’s remorse. But it hasn’t worked out that way, said Larry Elliott in The Guardian. Retail sales defied predictions by jumping 1.4% in July, and the number of people claiming jobless benefits fell. “The financial markets are serene.” Share prices are close to a record high. And Project Fear is over. Fearing that their doom-mongering might spark a recession, officials effected an abrupt U-turn on 24 June, and began seeking to reassure the voters they’d worked so hard to spook; meanwhile, at the Bank of England, Mark Carney stopped issuing dire warnings, and introduced a stimulus package. Of course, it’s early days, but the indications are that Britain’s economy is not about to nosedive.

For Brexiters, these figures may seem like manna from heaven, said Geoffrey Smith in Fortune. But others show that job openings (a future indicator rather than a lagging one) fell in July; and the retail boost may have been at least partly due to the good weather, and tourists taking advantage of the weak pound. In other words, it was a good sign, but not solid ground for long-term economic growth. Besides which, Brexit hasn’t actually started yet, said Toby Helm in The Observer. Britain’s key negotiators haven’t even agreed a division of responsibilities, let alone an answer to the multi-billion euro question: how to guarantee the UK access to the single market while also satisfying Brexiters on issues such as freedom of movement. With our laws so closely entwined, disentangling Britain from the EU is a hugely complex task.

That’s why Theresa May is in no hurry to trigger Article 50, said Juliet Samuel in The Daily Telegraph. Once she does, we will have just two years to negotiate terms with remaining EU states – some of which are eager for Brexit to fail. So it’s vital that we get our house in order before we start. That means finding skilled trade negotiators, and thousands of lawyers and civil servants to consider everything from the impact of leaving the Common Agricultural Policy to the constitutional implications for Scotland. The Government also needs time to sound out where the national consensus lies. Some Brexiters are calling for May to activate Article 50 now, because they are convinced their victory is going to be taken away; but an unseemly rush to the exit would not be in anyone’s best interests.