Is this the end for Robert Mugabe?
Robert Mugabe, the victorious freedom fighter whose “twisted genius” has kept him in power for 36 years, is the “ultimate dictator”, said Simon Allison in the Daily Maverick (Johannesburg). But time is finally running out for the “doddery nonagenarian”. He falls asleep in public and makes frequent trips to a Singapore clinic (for an eye condition, he says; prostate cancer, so the rumours go). It’s not just his health that’s ailing. Zimbabwe’s finances have crashed again: there’s no money to pay civil servants, teachers and nurses. In July, a general strike brought the country to a standstill. Since then, huge demonstrations have been broken up by police, the unrest spreading to rural areas that used to be strongholds of his ruling Zanu-pf party. The divide-and-conquer tactic he learned from the British colonisers no longer works, as the opposition unites against him. The scent of a “Zimbabwean Spring” is in the air.
The spirit of resistance is “nearing tipping point”, said Fungi Kwaramba in Daily News (Harare). Even veteran fighters of the colonial wars have turned against Mugabe, a stunning development considering they’ve long been his most loyal supporters. In recent elections they beat up opposition voters; now they’re marching with protesters alongside opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai, a man they used to deride. Zimbabweans’ biggest fear is another currency crash, said business website The Source (Harare). They have “nightmarish” memories of the hyperinflation that reached a peak in late 2008, when a note worth 100 trillion Zimbabwean dollars would barely buy a loaf of bread.
The big question is who will succeed Mugabe, said Teresa Nogueira Pinto in Geopolitical Intelligence Services (Liechtenstein). Zimbabwe has so much going for it – fertile farm land, abundant mineral deposits, one of the highest literacy rates in Africa. It only needs effective government to prosper. By far the best bet for an orderly succession is reform-minded vice-president Emmerson Mnangagwa, whose strong international connections could help win the loans the country desperately needs to get back on track. But he faces opposition from hardliners led by Mugabe’s wife, Grace, who backs controversial plans to accelerate the takeover of foreignowned businesses, a huge turn-off to potential investors abroad. The danger is that Zanu-pf could simply “implode”: a recipe for “chaos and violence”. Fortunately, Mnangagwa’s influence with the army and police make his succession the most likely outcome. Whatever happens, turbulent times lie ahead.