Sturgeon: could she win a second vote?

“Eight months after becoming Prime Minister, Theresa May is in a seemingly impregnable position” in domestic politics, said the FT. With the opposition in disarray, she is a staggering 18 points ahead in the polls; and her own Tories, so often riven over the EU, are largely behind her Brexit strategy. But there is a cloud on the horizon: “rumbling discontent” in Scotland that could complicate difficult Brexit negotiations. It’s only two-and-a-half years since the Scots rejected independence in a poll that the SNP billed as a “once in a generation” opportunity; but that was before the Brexit referendum delivered a result a large majority of Scots opposed. They are now furious that they are being dragged out of the EU against their will, and Nicola Sturgeon has indicated that she will demand the right to hold a second independence referendum (indyref2) unless her Brexit terms – that Scotland stays in the single market and controls its own immigration policy – are met.

The idea of a bespoke deal for Scotland is beguiling, said Philip Aldrick in The Times. A hard Brexit threatens to hit Scotland, with its large manufacturing and agricultural sectors, harder than most regions: the Scots could pay heavily for something they rejected. But Sturgeon’s proposal would create a logistical nightmare; it is simply unworkable. So will she call for a new referendum? The timing is not propitious. North Sea oil revenues have collapsed: three years ago, the SNP predicted that Scotland’s share would be £8bn by 2016; in fact, it was only £60m. Without its £9bn subsidy from Westminster, Scotland would be running a 9.5% deficit. And a divorce would threaten its access to its biggest export market: Scotland exports four times as much to the UK as it does to the rest of the EU. Independence spells “economic suicide” and years of austerity. Even so, Sturgeon may not be able to resist seizing this opportunity to demand a new vote – and May is unlikely to feel she has the democratic mandate to deny her.

In Whitehall, ministers think – when they think about Scotland at all – that Sturgeon can’t win an indyref2 (and may not call one), said Alex Massie in The Spectator. The polls back this up: most Scots still favour remaining in the UK. But London’s complacency is misplaced. Sturgeon’s campaign would be based on the idea that it’s worth enduring years of austerity to avoid being stuck in a Brexited, Tory-dominated UK. She’d be taking a big risk, but recent experience tells us that polls aren’t reliable, and that voters don’t always heed the warnings of economic experts. In these strange times, she might just pull it off.