What the commentators said
Sturgeon is often presented as a “sort of political chess master”, said Dominic Lawson in The Sunday Times, but she doesn’t look much like one to me. A year ago, the SNP said it wouldn’t call for another referendum unless polls showed 60% support for independence “for at least a year”. Yet today’s polls suggest opinion has barely shifted since the 2014 vote, when Scots voted by 55% to 45% to stay in the Union. The SNP, meanwhile, still lacks convincing answers on economic and currency issues. The latest polls show that “a mere 10% of Scots want to give up sterling for the euro: the idea of becoming a sort of drizzly Greece is not alluring”.
“On the face of it, these are less than propitious circumstances for a fresh tilt at national emancipation,” said Alex Massie on Capx. But while immediate concerns such as Scotland’s annual deficit – 10% of GDP – favour the Union, “deeper currents favour the nationalists”. There has been “a steady realignment of Scottish politics” over recent years towards nationalism. The latest Scottish Social Attitudes survey – “the gold standard” of polls – shows that around twice as many Scots support independence today as did a generation ago.
Given that May has ruled out a referendum in the near future, what happens now? Sturgeon insisted last week that she had “various options”, said David Torrance in The Herald, but she didn’t elaborate any further. The SNP could hold an “advisory” referendum, but that would lack legitimacy, especially if unionists boycotted it. The party could also call an early election with a view to gaining a stronger mandate, but voters tend to react badly when politicians engineer polls “to suit their own agendas”. Chances are, then, that both sides will play a long game. May will delay a referendum as long as is politically feasible, hoping the tide turns against the SNP. Sturgeon, for her part, will “sit tight” while making the most of May’s Brexit difficulties and trying to overhaul some of her party’s weaker policies. Whatever happens, said Andrew Grice in The Independent, “the two most powerful women in the UK are now two scorpions in a bottle; only one will get out alive”.