What the commentators said

Leaving the EU technically involves two sets of negotiations, said Anand Menon in The Independent. One is the Article 50, or “divorce”, talks – on, for instance, a financial settlement, citizens’ rights and borders – while the other will be about the future relationship between Britain and the EU. At present, not even the scope of the talks has been agreed. Britain wants to do the trade deal simultaneously; the other 27 members refuse. With pauses for French and German elections, eurozone crises and so on, the two years allotted by Article 50 will likely be cut down to 18 months. “Even settling the divorce in such a time frame would be impressive.” The idea that a trade deal can be banged out as well is “hopelessly unrealistic”. The Brexiters’ claims will soon be exposed, said Martin Wolf in the FT. They will discover that all trade deals “impose constraints on national autonomy”. If we want frictionless trade, we will have to submit to EU regulations. “If a deal is to be reached, the UK, as the weaker party, will need to make concessions, starting with the money owed.” It has obligations – budget payments, EU pensions – arising from its 43 years of membership. As a “civilised country”, it must fulfil them.

The danger is that “each side will underestimate the determination of the other”, said William Hague in The Daily Telegraph. Both need to respect the other’s “red lines”. It is “politically impossible” for the UK to settle for anything less than control of our borders and independence from the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (ECJ). Conversely, the EU cannot give Britain a free trade deal as favourable as that given to, for instance, Norway – which allows free movement of people. There is a “narrow space” between those red lines, but a deal is possible. “As the old adage has it, negotiations succeed when both sides can claim victory,” said James Forsyth in The Spectator. The EU could grant the UK “relatively frictionless access” to the single market, which would let May claim she has achieved her main goal. “And the UK could agree to a generous leaving payment which reduces the Brexit-sized hole in the EU budget, letting European leaders tell their voters that the British have paid a price for leaving.”