Is Putin planning to invade Belarus?

“We are not slaves.” Those were the signs being held up by the “parasites” as they marched in their thousands through the streets of Minsk, the capital city. Public protest is rare in Belarus, said Peter Bologov on Gazeta.ru (Moscow). There has been the odd organised demo by city-dwelling liberals; but this is different. Today’s protests are a spontaneous expression of anger by the conservative supporters of the dictator Alexander Lukashenko: they’re even calling for his resignation. But that’s what you get if you’re rash enough, as Lukashenko has been, to pass a decree declaring that all those who have been out of work for at least six months are “parasites”, who must pay a $245 fine. Given that the average monthly income is $380 and that almost half a million people have been jobless for that time, it’s a recipe for rebellion. Lukashenko may be impelled to dump this “shameful” tax.

The 62-year-old ice hockey-playing president, who’s been in power for 23 years, is starting to lose his swagger, said Don Murray on CBC News (Toronto). Just five years ago, when Germany’s openly gay foreign minster called him “Europe’s last dictator”, Lukashenko shot back: “Better to be a dictator than gay.” But now he’s desperate to “cosy up” to the EU, because relations are souring with his traditional ally, Russia. He was completely spooked by Russia’s annexation of Crimea, fearing Belarus would be next. And his fears grew when Putin pushed for a new Russian airbase to be located in the Belarus city of Bobruisk. When Lukashenko blocked that, the enraged Kremlin re-established border controls (a blow to Belarus’ exports) and hiked up the price of its oil, which for decades had been heavily subsidised for Belarus’ benefit. Factories are now laying off workers – another blow to the country’s “crumbling” economy.

Relations with Moscow are now so bad, said Oskar Górzynski in Wiadomosci (Warsaw), that when Lukashenko announced he was off to Sochi, Russia’s Black Sea resort, for a week’s holiday, the gossip was that he might not return alive. The real aim of the trip was to get a face-to-face meeting with Putin; but Putin snubbed him. We’re used to seeing the two sides sparring. Russia seeks to dominate Belarus; Lukashenko pushes back by making the odd overture to the West, hoping to extract concessions from Moscow. But this time it looks serious. Massive Russian army exercises are planned on Belarusian territory later this year. No wonder the media in Minsk is speculating that Putin could now seize the chance to annex his troublesome neighbour.