THE WIZARD OF SILICON VALLEY
Apple, it was recently confirmed, is building a self-driving car. What else does America’s tech industry have in store for us? What’s going on out West?
Over the past 20 years, the US high-tech industry, centred in Silicon Valley in northern California, has revolutionised the way that we buy goods and services, communicate, read newspapers, watch TV, listen to music, consume pornography, bank, and hail taxis. But recently, digital pioneers have tried to break out of established online businesses – partly to find new markets to “disrupt”, and partly out of frustrated idealism: in the words of one former Facebook engineer, “the best minds of my generation are thinking about how to make people click ads. That sucks.”
Who is doing what?
The classic example is Elon Musk, once CEO of Paypal, who has branched out into electric cars (Tesla), solar power systems (Solarcity), ultrahigh-speed train travel (Hyperloop) and spacecraft (Spacex). The latter aims to create “the technology needed to establish life on Mars”. Hardly less ambitious is Google’s “moonshots” division, X, led by the entrepreneur-scientist Astro Teller. It is developing Waymo, Google’s driverless car arm; Project Loon, which aims to create a global internet network using balloons in the stratosphere; and Project Wing, pioneering the use of self-flying vehicles to deliver goods. Google has also set up Calico, a company devoted to “life extension” – research into the biology of ageing. Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg, meanwhile, has pledged $3bn towards preventing, curing or managing all diseases by 2100.
Are any of these remotely practical?
Yes and no. Musk has ceased to be directly involved with the Hyperloop (see box), but Tesla is now the world’s second-biggest plug-in electric car manufacturer (after Renault-nissan), and Spacex won Nasa’s contract to resupply the International Space Station. At Google X, the picture is more mixed. Its most famous project, Google Glass – a pair of glasses with a tiny camera and a computer in the corner of one lens – flopped; it was slammed by tech critics, and criticised on privacy grounds. However, X claims to have covered its losses through the successful development of Google Brain, an artificial intelligence (AI) project which has since been “graduated” to the main company.
Why is AI such a key area?
Breakthroughs in computerised perception and language processing – exemplified in the current crop of “intelligent personal assistants” such as Apple’s Siri and Amazon’s Alexa – have already made computers smarter and able to “learn” faster than ever. But this is just the start. Computers that can intelligently analyse vast databanks are likely to lead to breakthroughs in everything from medical diagnostics to climate science, and to underpin developments in driverless cars, robotics and other cutting-edge areas. Google’s Jeff Dean likens it to the point in evolution when animals grew eyes. “That’s going to change a lot of stuff. Computers used to not be able to see very well, and now they’re starting to open their eyes.”
What else will be the next big thing?
At present, nobody quite knows. The “internet of things” – the online networking of everyday devices: a fridge that tells you when you run out of milk, for example – has failed to take off in the way many thought it would, partly due to security concerns. In October, hackers suborned a vast number of smart devices – fridges, thermostats, toasters – and used them to mount a huge attack on popular websites such as Netflix and Twitter. So now, says one investor, “the tech world is at sea, dog-paddling and waiting for the next big wave”. Candidates include driverless cars (Apple, Google and Uber are all working in this area); chatbots (where Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft, Google and IBM vie for supremacy); robotics, including drones; and biotech.
How are the driverless cars going?
Google has the most advanced technology: its driverless cars have driven more than two million miles and have had only 14 accidents, of which 13 were caused by other drivers. Yet Big Tech has had to accept limitations. Designing cars that can drive in complex situations – as opposed to, say, on a motorway – is painstaking. Tesla’s Autopilot system (designed to be used under human supervision) caused a fatal crash when it didn’t recognise a white trailer against a bright sky. Besides, the likes of Apple and Google don’t have the skills and supply chains to take on the big traditional carmakers. Recent predictions suggest Ford and General Motors are closest to producing a self-driving mass market car (probably by the early 2020s). For tech firms, pairings may be the future: Uber has teamed up with Volvo; Google with Fiat Chrysler.
What about robotics?
Again, Silicon Valley has had to accept that software is far easier to develop than hardware. Beating a grandmaster at chess is one thing, but the real world is different. Robots are more difficult even than cars; preparing them to cope with random elements of even simple tasks, such as picking up items off the floor, takes years. Last year, Google announced that it plans to sell Boston Dynamics, a robotics group it had acquired with great fanfare in 2013. Amazon recently made its first UK delivery by drone, in Cambridge, but it concedes that rolling out the service “will take some time”.
And biotech?
This is possibly the biggest prize of all. Marrying IT with biological data has great potential. Patient information systematically collected and analysed could provide crucial insights into diseases and treatments – a mass of data to complement clinical trials. In the long run, the ability to analyse and edit genes may allow huge medical steps forward. There are now 70 life science companies in South San Francisco. Counsyl, for instance, offers full genetic tests for a fraction of the price of existing firms. “Whoever wins in biology wins the 21st century,” says biotech investor Arvind Gupta.