The hardliner moderates fear the most

Foreign Policy (Washington DC)

Iran’s presidential election in May is shaping up to be another “epic” fight between hardliners and moderates, says Alex Vatanka. The most eye-catching challenger to the moderate Hassan Rouhani, the incumbent, is his predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has defied the wishes of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei by choosing to stand again. But a far greater threat to the moderates’ cause is Ebrahim Raisi. A dullard who has risen to the top through family connections and a willingness to curry favour, Raisi has “feeble” theological credentials (he had to retract his claim to be an ayatollah), but, crucially, has Khamenei’s backing. He’s also the consensus candidate of the “Principlists”, the array of small hard-line parties who would like to see Raisi take over as supreme leader when Khamenei goes. On paper, though, he doesn’t stand a chance: Iranian voters tend to go for moderates, and Raisi’s past as a cruel judge, responsible for mass executions of political prisoners, is a black mark against him. The worry in the moderate camp is that the hardliners plan to steal the election through vote rigging, to ensure Raisi gains the platform he needs if he is to become supreme leader. With the stakes so high, this election could prove the most contentious yet.