The Brexit factor: a threat to the Tories?
On paper, the 8 June poll looks like the most predictable general election for decades, said Rachel Sylvester in The Times. A Tory landslide “seems all but inevitable” given the disarray of Labour and UKIP. But one factor may yet throw a spanner in the works: Brexit. The country is “still divided over Europe”, and this could produce some fundamental shifts in voting behaviour. The Liberal Democrats are already picking up support on the back of the issue: they’ve doubled their membership since the last election, to 95,000, and are “outstripping Labour on fundraising”. Three proEuropean pressure groups, meanwhile, have joined forces to rally support for Remain-inclined MPS of all parties, and to encourage tactical voting against proponents of “hard Brexit”. Tony Blair lent his backing to the campaign last week, inviting voters to put party allegiances aside and select only candidates with an “open mind” on leaving the EU.
The Brexit factor poses a real threat to the Tories in areas that voted strongly for Remain, said Nigel Morris in the i newspaper. Just look at what happened in December, when the Lib Dems overturned Zac Goldsmith’s huge majority in Richmond Park. But replicating that result in other constituencies will be a challenge, said Stephen Bush in the New Statesman. It’s hard to imagine, for instance, that voters in relatively deprived Vauxhall will oust their Labour MP, Kate Hoey, simply because she supports Brexit, while 78% of them voted Remain. Or that voters in Tory-controlled Chipping Barnet will suddenly embrace Jeremy Corbyn’s party out of pro-eu solidarity. The reality is that, for many people, Brexit “will take a back seat” to other issues.
It shouldn’t, said David Aaronovitch in The Times. Theresa May is asking voters to sign a blank cheque on our future relationship with Europe. The least we can do is “demand answers” to the vital Brexit questions during the campaign. Critics are making out that a big Tory victory will “steamroller” the country into a hard Brexit, said William Hague in The Daily Telegraph, but don’t fall for that line. While a bigger majority might allow her to be “tougher on some matters”, it would also give her more leeway for compromise by reducing the power that Tory Eurosceptics currently wield over her. If voters follow Blair’s advice and prevent an increased Tory majority in order to head off a so-called hard Brexit, they’ll just make it harder for May to strike the necessary deals. And that’s in nobody’s interest.