Qatar: standoff in the Gulf
“The stage is set for a dangerous showdown” in the Middle East, said The Times. On 5 June, Saudi Arabia, backed by Egypt and its allies in the Persian Gulf, began a blockade against Qatar, accusing the small, gas-rich emirate of supporting terrorism; they cut land, air and sea links, and expelled its citizens. Last week, a 13-point ultimatum issued by the Saudi-led coalition was published. Qatar was given ten days to sever all alleged terror connections, drastically scale back its diplomatic contacts with Iran, close the broadcaster Al Jazeera, and remove Turkish troops from its territory, among other demands. Qatar’s response was unrepentant: it called the blockade illegal, and the demands “unreasonable”. Turkey, a close ally, also weighed in, promising to send additional troops to Qatar.
Among the Gulf’s conservative autocracies, Qatar has “built up a reputation as a maverick”, said The Guardian. It has dared to have its own foreign policy, and to challenge Saudi Arabia’s regional dominance. Its stance is “epitomised” by its ownership of Al Jazeera. Since its launch in 1996, the satellite station has broadcast an entirely new kind of news directly into Arab living rooms, and, by giving a voice to the Arab Spring of 2011, it has infuriated many regional leaders (though of course, it rarely criticises Qatar’s own absolute monarchy). The Qataris have certainly supported Islamist terror groups, said Asli Aydintasbas in The Washington Post – but so too have Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states, often backing “far more extreme” organisations. The real bone of contention is Qatar’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood and its affiliates across the Arab world. The Brotherhood, though a radical Islamist group, generally seeks power through elections. Saudi Arabia, by contrast, “has an existential aversion to the idea of democratic elections, or regime change through the ballot, anywhere in the Muslim world”.
Saudi Arabia hoped to create a “united front” against Qatar, said Saeid Jafari on Al-monitor (Washington DC). Instead, it has created “a bipolar Middle East”, with Saudi and its Arab allies on one side, and Turkey and Iran on the other. It was also counting on full US support, which – despite a supportive early tweet from President Trump – has not materialised. Qatar is one of the richest nations in the world, said The Economist. Turkey, along with Iran and Morocco, have willingly stepped in to supply the food that previously came from Saudi. Most of Qatar’s lucrative oil and gas exports go to Asia, and are flowing out as normal. The emirate is “well placed to hold out for a good while yet”.