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The ailing king of Saudi Arabia issued a series of royal decrees last week that could have huge ramifications for his country and the wider Middle East, said Elizabeth Dickinson in Foreign Policy (Washington DC). In a shake-up of the royal succession line, the 81-year-old ousted his nephew Mohammed bin Nayef as crown prince and named his favourite son, Mohammed bin Salman, as next in line for the throne. It marks an important generational shift for the kingdom. Whereas bin Nayef is 57, bin Salman is just 31. He could conceivably rule Saudi Arabia for the next half-century. Bin Salman, widely known as MBS, was a complete unknown before his father took the throne in 2015, said Robin Wright in The New Yorker. Three of his older brothers had higher profiles and were considered more accomplished. One was the first Arab astronaut, who flew on the Space Shuttle in 1985; another became deputy oil minister; the third is an Oxford-educated political scientist. By contrast, MBS was educated entirely in Saudi Arabia and was a mere adviser to his father. But he has certainly made his mark in the past couple of years, while serving as defence minister and deputy crown prince, as a vocal champion of modernisation and reform. “In a country long ruled by men who grew up without air conditioning or direct-dial phones, the new crown prince talks of growing up playing video games, carries an iphone, and talks openly about idolising Steve Jobs.”
Mbs’s youth is a bonus in a kingdom where at least half the population is aged under 25, said The National (Abu Dhabi). His moves to open up more entertainment options, curb the powers of the religious police and diversify the economy have made him “very popular” with young Saudis. He’s just the man to tackle the challenges presented by the Arab Spring and the collapse in the oil price. Mbs’s appointment promises to give wings to Saudi Arabia’s “nascent transformation”, agreed Hassan Hassan in the same paper. The country is now fully alive to the threat posed by Islamist extremism and is taking ever more assertive steps to counter it, domestically and abroad. The power of the reactionary hardliners may be waning. As one Arab official close to the regime put it: “If in six months Saudi Arabia decides to lift the ban on women driving, will the clerics make a big deal out of it? They won’t.”
MBS is certainly dynamic and hard-working, said Mohamad Bazzi in The Atlantic (Washington DC), but he is also inexperienced and, many fear, something of a hothead. In 2015, he launched a military campaign in Yemen to oust Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. Saudi Arabia is now “bogged down” in a conflict that has killed some 10,000 Yemenis and “left a quarter of the country’s population on the brink of famine”. MBS was also the main driver behind the recent campaign to isolate Qatar, another provocative move designed to bolster Saudi Arabia’s regional dominance and counter Iran’s influence. That’s the big concern: having won the support of President Trump, who has apparently “taken a liking to the young prince”, and with his royal succession now assured, MBS is “likely to take even greater risks”.