Brexit: is May’s plan doomed?
“It is now horribly clear that a fundamental assumption made by the British government throughout the Brexit negotiations was wrong,” said Camilla Cavendish in The Sunday Times. Ministers thought it would be possible to strike a bespoke deal, half in and half out of the EU, even though the European Commission has always rejected such “cherry-picking” – because they thought that, ultimately, individual member states would break rank with Brussels. The Germans would worry about their UK car exports, the smaller nations about access to London’s capital markets – and they would force the Commission to make concessions. But as we get closer to Brexit, there is “a terrible realisation” that EU discipline is holding firm. Last weekend, Theresa May visited Emmanuel Macron at Fort de Brégançon, the French president’s retreat on the Côte d’azur, to seek support for her Chequers compromise. “The entente was cordiale”, but Macron gave not an inch. His refusal even to hold a press conference with May symbolised his absolute determination to “stand firm” with Brussels.
May’s Cabinet colleagues, “fanning out across the continent like Patton’s Third Army” to seek support for her deal, fared no better, said The Observer. Jeremy Hunt, the new Foreign Secretary, went to Vienna to warn that Britain was heading for a “no-deal by accident”. The Europeans were puzzled. Michel Barnier, Europe’s chief negotiator, has been saying for two years that there can be no compromise that weakens the integrity of the EU’S single market and its borders. “The UK wants to take back sovereignty and control of its own laws, which we respect,” wrote Barnier in an article published in 20 European newspapers last week, “but it cannot ask the EU to lose control of its borders and laws.”
Even so, Europe would be crazy not to show a little flexibility, said William Hague in The Daily Telegraph. If a deal can’t be struck, then “everybody loses”. Most economists think the UK will lose out more than the EU in the short term. But Europe’s exporters will of course suffer too; millions of citizens will be caught in legal limbo; and Britain will halt its promised payments to the EU budget. Furthermore, in the long run, Britain will try to maximise its competitive advantage against Europe in every way possible by loosening its regulations. “If the EU is incapable of forging a special relationship with its closest, largest democratic neighbour, even when it is offered one, its chances of surviving the 21st century will be diminished.”