American prosperity: the shield protecting the president
To listen to the relentless media attacks on President Trump, you’d think he was universally reviled in the US, said Corey Lewandowski in The Hill (Washington DC). Nothing could be further from the truth. A recent poll put his approval rating higher than that of Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan at the same point in their presidencies. And there’s a big reason why he is still so popular: the “booming economy”. Since coming into office, Trump has got rid of many of the “harmful, unnecessary regulations” that were holding the US economy back, and introduced pro-growth tax cuts. The result? Around three million new jobs, healthy GDP increases and consumer confidence at an 18-year high. Ignore the smug pundits predicting a “Democratic wave” in November’s midterm elections. It’s going to be “a small ripple, one in which voters send a message to Washington – it’s ‘the economy, stupid’”.
The US economy has certainly prospered under Trump, said Matt Egan on CNN. The stock market is enjoying its longest bull run. But is this prosperity now in jeopardy as a result of the president’s political difficulties? Trump suggested as much last week, warning that if he was impeached, the “market would crash” and “everybody would be very poor”. He can cite some history to support that claim: the S&P 500 index “dropped 14% in 1973 and then 26% in 1974 as President Nixon faced impeachment”. But few Wall Street investors expect Trump’s woes to spark more than temporary volatility, said Ben White on Politico. Indeed, some talk of a “relief rally” if he stands down early. “The underlying economy would remain strong and a hypothetical President Pence would likely continue Trump’s policy of low taxes and fewer regulations without all the wild tweeting and trade wars.”
Trump “has the causality backwards”, said Conor Sen on Bloomberg. The market won’t crash if he’s impeached; rather, he’ll be impeached if the market crashes. Remember, it was the disastrous surge in inflation in 1973 that destroyed Nixon’s popularity and “ultimately led to the unravelling of his presidency”. So long as the economy and the markets stay strong, the Republicans will stick by Trump. But if the economy goes south, “well… that’s when Trump’s luck runs out”.