The battle for Venezuela

“No nation in the western hemisphere is worse-governed than Venezuela,” said The Times. Nicolás Maduro’s regime has presided over a decline of 40% in real incomes per head over the past five years; inflation runs at more than 1,000,000%. Venezuelans are malnourished and lack simple medicines. Maduro’s misrule is “sustained by repression and fraud” – last year’s presidential election was a “charade” – and has created a huge refugee crisis. Three million of the country’s 32 million people have emigrated. The US and most Latin American nations have recognised the opposition leader Juan Guaidó’s claim to be the head of state (constitutionally, as the head of the national assembly, he becomes interim president in the absence of a legitimate alternative). Last week, Britain joined France, Germany and Spain in recognising Guaidó ( see page 19). In Caracas, tens of thousands once again took to the streets last weekend to urge Maduro to step down; polls suggest 80% of Venezuelans support them. The message is clear: it’s “time to go”.

The country is certainly in “a disastrous situation”, said Temir Porras Ponceleon in The Guardian. But the world should be careful what it unleashes in Venezuela. Its people are bitterly divided: Maduro, like his predecessor Hugo Chávez, still has millions of supporters, particularly among the military and the poor – who have benefited from the redistribution of the country’s vast oil wealth. Middle-class politicians like Guaidó have never accepted the Chavistas’ legitimacy, and have tried to oust them from office at every opportunity. Recognising Guaidó threatens to provoke a “bloody civil war”. Chávez and Maduro may still be popular in some quarters, said The Economist, but the fact remains that they have created a “socialist dystopia”, where opponents are tortured and people are starving. “When a leader pillages his state, oppresses his people and subverts the rule of law, it is everybody’s business.” The question is not “whether the world should help Guaidó, but how”.

The US has refused to rule out military action, but sanctions are its weapon of choice, said John Paul Rathbone in the FT. Washington has outlawed dollar payments to Maduro’s government for oil, the country’s only significant export. And the effect has been immediate: exports halved last week. The opposition hopes that this will rob the regime of the money it pays “to keep the military on board”. Under Chávez and Maduro, the generals have “become deeply involved in a host of lucrative activities”, from oil to insurance to drug smuggling, said Michael Albertus in The New York Times. Although the top brass won’t like having their income squeezed, a new government could be an even worse threat to their economic position. In countries in comparable situations – Chile and Myanmar, for instance – the transition to democracy was only made possible by agreeing a generous deal with the military. Unpalatable though it seems, paying off the generals might be the only way forward.