Stand-off in Hong Kong
Vast crowds of pro-democracy demonstrators defied an official ban and took to the streets of Hong Kong last week, despite severe threats of a crackdown from Beijing. Organisers say the march attracted 1.7 million people, almost a quarter of Hong Kong’s population. The rally passed off peacefully, in sharp contrast to the violence early last week, when protesters occupied Hong Kong’s international airport. As protests entered their 11th week, a senior Chinese diplomat cautioned that Beijing would not “sit on its hands and watch” if the situation deteriorated. The warning came as TV pictures showed Chinese forces massed just across the border in Shenzhen. The sudden resignation of the boss of Cathay Pacific, Hong Kong’s flag carrier airline, is also widely seen as a result of Beijing’s pressure. Rupert Hogg had been embroiled in a row with Beijing over his reluctance to sack airline staff who had taken part in the protests ( see page 45).
What the editorials said
“The Hong Kong crisis has reached a pivotal moment,” said The Times. China could yet meet the protesters’ demands by leaning on the Hong Kong government to scrap its controversial extradition law and order an inquiry into police abuses. Or it could send in the troops – and risk the start of a “new, protracted Cold War”. Alas, the hardening rhetoric from Beijing suggests that it is now bent on confrontation, said The Observer. According to China’s “fake narrative”, the protesters are a “subversive minority” of “terrorists” who take their orders from the US, Britain and Taiwan. The likely aim of such propaganda: to prepare public opinion ahead of a crackdown.
At least the peaceful nature of last weekend’s mass rally gave Hong Kong “a much-needed break” from violence, said the South China Morning Post. Let’s hope that the organisers have learnt a lesson from the ugly scenes at the airport last week, when protesters clashed with riot police and attacked a Chinese journalist accused of being an infiltrator. Any repeat would risk losing the support of local and international communities.
What the commentators said
Listen to the doomsayers in Hong Kong and it’s easy to believe China will soon “detonate the nuclear option” and crush the protests, said David Dodwell in the South China Morning Post. And no doubt impatient hardliners in Beijing are itching to do just that. But I doubt it will. After all, a brutal intervention would destroy at a stroke China’s remaining reputation as a responsible member of the international community. Besides, it won’t be that easy to persuade the People’s Liberation Army to act against unarmed protesters. When the government sent troops into Tiananmen Square in 1989, they showed a marked reluctance to act against the students. The economic consequences, too, must give Beijing pause for thought, said Yinzi Huli on Spiked. True, Hong Kong now accounts for just 3% of China’s GDP; when Britain ceded control in 1997 it was a chunky 18%. But it still handles 60% of China’s outbound investment and remains the world’s third largest financial centre after New York and London. Why jeopardise the future of such a money-spinner, especially at a time when the economy is slowing?
I can’t share that optimism, said Jude Blanchette in Foreign Policy. The Chinese leadership has a long memory: it is especially mindful of how the Communist regimes of Eastern Europe crumbled after making concessions to protesters. When “backed into a corner”, it believes violence “is preferable to perceived political weakness”. As for any concern for its global image, that hasn’t stopped it detaining a million of its own Uighur citizens. There’s little the UK can do if China does act on its threats, said Matt Kilcoyne in The Times. But we’re not wholly powerless. Many of Hong Kong’s citizens are classed as British Nationals Overseas, but have no right to live in Britain. “If darkness should fall”, why not – as Tom Tugendhat, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee suggests – grant them that privilege. The presence of such “entrepreneurial, freedom-living individuals” would be a “huge boost” for this country.
What next?
Donald Trump has warned that any use of force by Beijing could threaten the future of negotiations on ending America’s trade war with China. The president said China must find a “humane solution” to Hong Kong’s problems before any deal could be reached. Trump will meet President Xi as well as Boris Johnson at this week’s G7 summit in Biarritz.
Beijing will be keen to see an end to the protests before October to prevent the unrest in Hong Kong from overshadowing its celebrations for the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic.