Kashmir: trouble in paradise
The bloody and intractable issue of Kashmir has flared up again, because of India’s move to change its constitutional status
What’s so special about Kashmir?
Nestling at the point where the borders of India and Pakistan meet in the Himalayas, the state of Jammu and Kashmir (its full title) is one of only two Muslim-majority states in Hindu-majority India. And Article 370 of the Constitution of India (see box) grants it special status: Jammu and Kashmir is the only state in India with a separate constitution. All actions not specifically falling under the jurisdiction of the government and parliament of India (matters of defence, foreign affairs and communications) have to receive the support of the state government. That is why the decision by Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist government to scrap Article 370 has proved so incendiary.
How long has it been a flashpoint?
It has been a bone of contention between India and Pakistan since Partition in 1947, primarily on account of its vital geo-strategic importance. The glacial waters flowing through Kashmir provide water and electricity to hundreds of millions of people in India; Pakistan’s biggest river, the Indus, also passes through it. But to both sides it is also a symbol of pride, a land famed for its beauty. “If there is a heaven on Earth,” the Mughal Emperor Jahangir once remarked, “it’s here, it’s here, it’s here.” Posters of its mountainous landscape adorn the walls of small restaurants across the entire subcontinent. So Kashmir is both a symbolic and a fundamental national security issue to both countries.
And how many people live there?
Some 12.5 million people live in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir – which is made up of the Kashmir Valley, Jammu and Ladakh. The Valley population (about eight million) is overwhelmingly Muslim – Hindus having largely been driven out; Jammu is majority Hindu; mountainous Ladakh, close to Tibet, has a large (40%) Buddhist population. About six million people live in the part of Kashmir now administered by Pakistan.
How did most of Kashmir end up under India’s control?
In the mid-19th century Kashmir’s Sikh rulers ceded the region to the British, who in turn sold it to the Hindu raja of neighbouring Ladakh and Jammu. The raja and his successors made no attempt to involve their Muslim subjects in Kashmir’s administration, but were very hospitable to the British for whom Srinagar, Kashmir’s capital, became a summer resort. Upon independence a century later, the princely states had the right to choose which country to join. For most, it was determined by geographical location. But Kashmir’s playboy maharaja, Hari Singh, could not decide, as his state adjoined both nations. He even pondered turning it into an independent “Switzerland of Asia”. But his hand was forced when, after Partition, Muslim workers, with Pakistani backing, rose up against their Hindu landlords and massacred them. India’s new PM, Jawaharlal Nehru, a Kashmiri Hindu by descent, sent in troops to quash the revolt, and Singh had little choice but to effectively cede Kashmir to India.
How was the fighting resolved?
By the time it ended with a UN-brokered ceasefire, most of the state was under Indian control, except the northwestern third, including Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad (“Free”) Kashmir, which is controlled by Pakistan. In 1948, the UN called for both sides to withdraw troops and let the people of Kashmir vote on their future status. This has never happened. Instead, the two countries went to war over Kashmir in 1965, and clashed again in the 1971 war which led to the creation of Bangladesh (formerly East Pakistan). The ceasefire line approved at the Simla Agreement in 1972 has become the de facto border, known as the Line of Control. There have been occasional talks since, but no deal has been reached.
Why has violence inside the state escalated since then?
In the late 1980s, growing opposition to Indian rule was fuelled by the killing of peaceful protesters. Separatists and pro-Pakistan groups in the Kashmir Valley, often trained and supplied by Pakistani forces, took up arms against the Indian authorities. India responded by flooding the region with troops, making Kashmir one of the most highly militarised areas in the world. But the regular curfews and media blackouts haven’t stemmed the violence. Tens of thousands of people have been killed in the ensuing insurgency; several thousand others have disappeared. Last year was the deadliest in a decade. Violence has risen steadily since Indian forces killed a young militant leader in July 2016. Last summer, India imposed direct rule; and in February, a local Muslim carried out the deadliest attack in Kashmir in three decades, killing some 40 Indian soldiers. In response, India launched air strikes on Pakistani territory. Pakistan downed an Indian fighter jet and captured its pilot, but later released him.
What do most Kashmiris want to see happen?
That is hotly-debated. A survey conducted by the British academic Robert Bradnock a decade ago found that nearly half of people in Kashmir wanted independence, rather than to be part of India or Pakistan. But opinion in Indian-administered areas was highly polarised, with the Kashmir Valley supporting independence and Hindu-majority Jammu strongly against. Bradnock concluded that the referendum envisaged by the UN would fail to resolve the conflict.
What is likely to happen now?
Modi, India’s PM, is unlikely to back down. He knows Kashmir is an issue that fires up the vast Hindu nationalist base of his party (the BJP) – stripping the region of its autonomy is a long-held Hindu nationalist demand. And he claims that scrapping Article 370 will deepen national unity and help develop a region that has lagged behind the rest of India. More ominously, a BJP spokesman has said that stripping Kashmir of statehood was necessary to “take full control of the security apparatus” at a sensitive juncture. Should the Taliban reach a peace deal with the US in the coming months, it is considered likely that many of the Islamist militants will turn their attention to Kashmir.