Pulling out of Afghanistan: a recipe for chaos?
Could it be that “America’s longest war” is coming to an end, asked Mujib Mashal in The New York Times. The conflict in Afghanistan has dragged on longer than the two World Wars and the Korean War combined. It began in October 2001 with Operation Enduring Freedom – the invasion by US troops, supported by the UK and other allies, launched in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks. Eighteen years later, it has claimed at least 2,300 US lives, along with those of more than 111,400 Afghans. Now the US is reported finally to be close to agreeing a peace deal with the Taliban, the resurgent Sunni fundamentalist Islamist movement known for its violent suppression of women’s rights, which held power in Afghanistan in the years before the US invasion and which still effectively controls some 40% of the country.
President Trump has given his “blessing” to a final round of talks, held this week in Qatar, between US negotiators and Taliban leaders, said Pamela Constable in The Washington Post. Under the deal, the US would stage a phased withdrawal of its remaining 14,000 troops, in return for a Taliban promise to cut ties with terrorist groups – including al-Qa’eda, the group behind the 9/11 attacks – and enter ceasefire talks with the elected government of President Ashraf Ghani.
With US elections next year, it’s easy to see why Trump is keen to bring his troops home, said Bernd Musch-Borowska on Deutschlandfunk (Berlin) – but it would be a “catastrophe” for Afghanistan if the West were to walk away now. The suicide bombing that killed 63 (mainly Shia) wedding guests in Kabul two weeks ago shows how fragile the security situation is. The local chapter of Islamic State – the jihadist group infamous for its activities in the Middle East – claimed responsibility for the bombing and is now trying to outdo even the Taliban, its rival Sunni militia, in its reputation for ferocity. Bloody attacks happen almost every day. Presidential elections, scheduled for 28 September, have had to be postponed several times because of the lack of basic security.
One major problem is that the peace plan makes no mention of Isis, said The Times of India – though it now poses an “even greater threat than the Taliban”. The group’s Afghan affiliate once numbered just a few members – but since its defeat in Syria and Iraq, the organisation has switched its attention to Afghanistan, recruiting foreign fighters and stockpiling weapons in the eastern Spin Ghar mountains, close to the Pakistan border. Although it has only 4,000 fighters – far fewer than the 80,000 who belong to the Taliban – it has carried out large-scale assaults, like the wedding bombing, on minority Shia, whom it regards as “apostates deserving of death”.
Trump should take care not to “repeat the mistake” of Barack Obama, said David Petraeus and Vance Serchuk in The Wall Street Journal. The former president’s decision to pull troops out of Iraq in 2011 caused that country to unravel – and led to the rise of Isis. If the US leaves Afghanistan now, it is almost certain that it too will slip into chaos. The Taliban will seek to overthrow the government and “reimpose medieval rule”, while Isis and others will turn the country into a “terrorist sanctuary”.
And in the background, it’s no surprise that Afghanistan’s powerful “feudal warlords” – the leaders of a complex patchwork of minority ethnic groups (including Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras) – are watching the negotiations closely, said Jean-Pierre Filiu in Le Monde (Paris). United by their historic hostility towards the country’s Pashtun majority – which includes both the Taliban and the government – these fractious groups still dominate many provinces, and many army troops would defect to their militias if the government collapsed. Together, they could form a “possible anti-Taliban front” – but it would be fragile at best. As Trump eyes a US withdrawal, the conditions in Afghanistan seem ripe for a return to “civil war”.