The PM returns: the search for the exit
“It’s a measure of how dramatically our horizons have shrunk,” said Gaby Hinsliff in The Guardian, that the prospect of a socially distanced trip to a council tip or garden centre “can now be held out by ministers as a reward for six weeks of self-sacrifice”. But these days, we must take “our thrills where we can”. On his return to Downing Street on Monday – just two days before the birth of his new son – Boris Johnson announced that the Government would shortly set out plans to ease social-distancing restrictions in a few limited areas. But he called for patience, insisting that it was still too early to bring an end to the lockdown itself. The Prime Minister compared the coronavirus to “an unexpected and invisible mugger” that the country had begun to wrestle to the ground. “This is the moment when we can press home our advantage,” he said. “It is also the moment of maximum risk.”
The PM is right about the need to keep rules in place, said Sean O’Grady in The Independent. Lifting them now would be akin to someone deciding that their parachute was doing such a great job they should take it off halfway down. Johnson cut a more sober figure outside No. 10, said Stephen Glover in the Daily Mail. There was no sign of the “clown” who, a few weeks ago, allegedly quipped that the search for ventilators should be called “Operation Last Gasp”. During his recent illness and recuperation, he will have had plenty of time to reflect on the fact that Britain’s response to the virus has been poor compared with that of other countries. But having been too relaxed at the start of this crisis, will the PM now go to the other extreme and be “too cautious”? Let’s hope not, said The Daily Telegraph. The public is tiring of confinement and the costs to the economy are mounting fast. “Ultimately, the UK is going to have to live with a degree of risk.”
It all boils down to one question, said Chris Smyth in The Times: which elements of normal life can we resume without pushing the R value – the average number of people to whom an infected person passes the virus – above 1? If R is kept below 1, the outbreak will tail off; if it goes above 1, exponential growth means it’s only a matter of time before the virus overwhelms the NHS. “There is all the difference in the world between 0.99999 and 1.00001.” The bad news is that all the modelling shows that any large-scale easing of restrictions – reopening entire schools, allowing people back to work, opening pubs and restaurants – would push R above 1, requiring a new lockdown. We’re going to have to make a lot of fine judgments about more limited steps.
One advantage of being at the “tail end of a world pandemic”, said Ben Macintyre in The Times, is that Britain can see what works in other countries. In Hong Kong, for instance, restaurants have opened, under strict rules: thermometer checks at the door, widely spaced tables; rooms no more than half full. The country’s efficient testing and tracing system will establish whether this works. Denmark’s experiment with primary schools reopening will be equally instructive, said The Daily Telegraph. Pupils are back, but class sizes have been cut in half and children have to wash their hands regularly, play outside in small groups and sit at widely spaced tables. In Switzerland, meanwhile, government scientists have concluded that children under ten pose no risk of infection from Covid-19, because they lack the “receptors” targeted by the virus, and that it’s therefore safe for them to hug their grandparents. We’ll see if they’re right.
“There is all the difference in the world
between 0.99999 and 1.00001”
British businesses are slowly returning to work, said The Times. Burger King, KFC and Pret A Manger have reopened some outlets for takeaways; Rolls Royce will restart production under a new safety regime that has separated workspaces and closed every second lavatory cubicle. But this “new normal” isn’t going to work for a lot of businesses. This country has 26,265 restaurants and 39,135 pubs, most of which struggle to make a profit even when they’re rammed with customers, let alone half full. Nor is any budget airline likely to survive if it can’t sell the middle seat in a row of three. The Resolution Foundation estimates that 8.6 million people in the UK work in areas where social distancing is not possible, said Robert Shrimsley in the FT. They’re either going to lose their jobs or be exposed to more risk. It’s these people – not just the medics and care workers, but the transport and supermarket staff, the hairdressers and the army of delivery drivers – who will bear the biggest burden as our economy stutters back to life.