No scientific basis for lockdown
Science proceeds by putting forward conjectures or hypotheses, collecting empirical data to test them, and accepting, rejecting or modifying them on that basis. The implication is that our scientific understanding is not fixed, but changes as evidence accumulates. In the UK, the initial decision to impose lockdown to control the effects of Covid-19 was based on a conjecture or model that has now been tested against real data, and is found to be wanting.
The model predicts that, under the sustainable public health measures taken by Sweden and in the absence of lockdown, there should now be 60,000 deaths in that country from Covid-19, whereas there are currently only about 3,000 there, with deaths now well past the peak and declining.
Given the failure of the model to make useful predictions, there is no justification for using it to guide future policy. In contrast, a large amount of empirical evidence has now been gathered which demonstrates that for a very large fraction of the population, the virus poses a very low risk, while a small fraction – whose immune systems are compromised – are vulnerable. Therefore, to follow the science, an appropriate policy is the targeted shielding of those who choose to be classified as vulnerable, rigorous screening of their carers to prevent transfer of infection to the vulnerable sector, and release from lockdown for those outside these categories. Continuing the blanket lockdown cannot be justified on the basis that it is “following the science”.
Professor Richard Ennos, Edinburgh involves all data being held centrally, with associated risks to cybersecurity and privacy and the danger of mission creep. It is open to abuse, because it relies on selfreporting rather than on tracing the contacts of people who have actually been tested. A single malicious user or a hypochondriac could cause dozens or hundreds of people to self-isolate for no reason.
Tech-savvy people have warned that the app has other serious flaws. It drains phone batteries and cannot communicate with locked phones. Nor will it be compatible with the systems used in other countries – most significantly the Republic of Ireland. The NHS contacttracing app embodies an outdated mentality of central command, control and competence. The Government must follow more tech-savvy nations in adopting an app based on Apple and Google’s contact-tracing framework.