Brexit talks: who will blink first?
“Well, at least Britain and the EU agree on one thing,” said Sean O’Grady in The Independent: “the trade talks are going very badly indeed.” After another round of negotiations last week, David Frost and Michel Barnier, the two chief negotiators, “both issued downbeat assessments of the progress, or lack of it”. By this point, we do at least know what the problems are, said Jim Brunsden in the FT. The EU has no intention of giving Britain full access to its markets without firm safeguards against unfair competition; in return for a tariff-free trade deal, it wants a “level playing field”, with the UK sticking closely to EU regulations. It also wants EU fishing fleets to have the same access to UK waters as they had under the Common Fisheries Policy. Britain, for its part, has no desire to regain its sovereignty only to accept EU laws – and hand over its fishing rights – in perpetuity.
The problem is that negotiators usually have years to break the deadlock, said Jon Stone in The Independent. This time, they have a matter of months. The Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove has suggested one solution: that the UK might accept a deal that brought in some tariffs, as long as the need for a level playing field was removed. Canada’s free trade deal with the EU is like this; but it took eight years to agree. An extension looks inevitable if there is to be a deal. And legally, that extension needs to be agreed by 30 June. But Britain has ruled out asking for one, said Dominic Lawson in The Sunday Times. Next year, Brussels agrees its new budget settlement, which will no doubt provide billions to help rebuild the EU after Covid-19. It would be madness for Britain, now the EU’s second-largest net contributor, to finance that “without any say or vote”.
The talks will resume on 1 June, said The Times, and “flexibility” will be needed on both sides. “Britain will not get the advantages of membership without paying the dues. The EU cannot expect a non-member to submit to all its rules.” Senior EU sources suggest that it may be prepared to soften its position on fisheries. Will the UK also make concessions? The Government “can talk as tough as it likes”, but it will never make a no-deal exit “a desirable option”.