Ethiopia: an African success story
What is the situation at present?
In the summer rainy season, Ethiopia began filling the reservoir. This is a highly contentious matter; fill it too quickly, and not enough water will reach downstream, where it is needed by Sudan and Egypt (which proposes a filling timetable of 12 to 21 years). On 21 July, Abiy announced that the first year filling had been completed: 1.17 cubic miles, of a total projected capacity of 17.7 cubic miles. He has also used strong language about his country’s plans: warning that he’s ready to “mobilise millions” to defend the Gerd, and adding that “no one could prevent” its completion. But Egypt is already facing water shortages, and its population is growing. “The Nile is a question of life, a matter of existence to Egypt,” President Sisi said last year, adding that he would use “all available means” to defend it.
Africa’s oldest independent country, Ethiopia is the continent’s second most populous nation after Nigeria. Apart from a five-year occupation by Mussolini’s Italy in the 1930s, it is also the only sub-Saharan African country that was never colonised. And its 9% annual growth rate over the past 15 years makes it Africa’s fastest-growing economy today. There are other reasons for optimism, too: more than 70% of its citizens are under 30, with 50% under 15; and Prime Minister Abiy has overseen a successful process of
social and economic liberalisation.
But serious challenges remain: Ethiopia is still one of Africa’s poorest countries, with a per capita income of just £651, poor internet and smartphone penetration
and a lack of private sector competition. And its complex ethnographic make-up poses challenges to
stable governance. Some of Abiy’s reforms have unleashed waves of protest within the country’s nine
ethnically based regions. For Abiy, the Gerd is a unique opportunity for Ethiopia to put its divisions aside. But – because Ethiopians are so heavily invested
in it – it is also politically combustible. When the project’s chief engineer, Simegnew Bekele, was found dead in 2018, officially by suicide, protests broke out.
What will be the outcome?
Both countries describe the issue as “existential” for their people. Prime Minister Abiy, who faces re-election next year, knows the Gerd is one of the few issues that unites Ethiopians of all ethnicities. Meanwhile President Trump, who once described President Sisi as “my favourite dictator”, has sided with Egypt, the US’s closest ally in the region, and blames Ethiopia for failing to cooperate. “I had a deal done and they broke the deal and they cannot do that,” he said. “It’s a very dangerous situation because Egypt is not going to be able to live that way... they’ll end up blowing up the dam.” Ethiopia, for its part, has accused Trump of inciting a war.