Vaccines: light at the end of the tunnel
“Nine long years elapsed between the isolation of the measles virus in 1954 and the licensing of a vaccine,” said The Economist. In the case of polio, the process took two decades. How remarkable, then, that scientists appear to be on track to produce an effective and safe Covid-19 vaccine within a single year. And not just one, either: over 320 of them are in development, several in advanced trials. Last week Pfizer announced that interim results suggested its vaccine’s efficacy was more than 90%, said Ian Sample in The Guardian. This week, another US firm, Moderna, revealed that its candidate appeared to show 94.5% efficacy. At £38 to £45 for a course of two shots, Moderna’s vaccine would be more expensive than Pfizer’s (£30 per course), but it would be easier to use as it doesn’t require ultra-cold freezing. The British vaccine being developed by Oxford University and AstraZeneca also requires only standard refrigeration, and would cost just £3 a dose.
In a week that the UK passed the grim threshold of 50,000 deaths from coronavirus, the promising news on vaccines has provided “some light at the end of the tunnel”, said Peter Frankopan in the London Evening Standard. But we must temper our excitement. If and when these vaccines are cleared for use, distributing and administering them will be a huge challenge.
Officials are aiming to inoculate a million people a week, which means the process would take over a year at best. And the Government’s recent record on logistical planning does not inspire confidence. The effectiveness of the programme will also depend on the willingness of people to get vaccinated, said Kenan Malik in The Observer. “In the US, just half the population seems so inclined. In Britain the figure is higher – about 70% – but still probably insufficient to generate herd immunity.”
The arrival of one or more vaccines won’t in itself solve everything, agreed Andrew Grice in The Independent. Indeed, in some ways this breakthrough has made the Government’s job harder. Ministers are worried that compliance with social distancing rules will drop off if people start thinking, unrealistically, that a fix is just around the corner. That is why “a Prime Minister who specialises in bouncy optimism” has given such a cautious welcome to the latest vaccine developments. Added to that, the news is intensifying the “health vs. economy” debate in the Conservative Party: some MPs are now arguing that younger adults, rather than the elderly, should be prioritised for inoculation, to boost the economy. “Despite the rare, welcome burst of sunshine, it is still going to be a long political winter for Boris Johnson.”