Vaccines: the bumpy road to freedom

We are in “the darkest days of the pandemic”, said the FT. Daily deaths are well into four figures in the UK; hospitals are struggling to cope; and in a cold, wet January, people are living under oppressive lockdown restrictions that might not be lifted for weeks or even months. But there is, at least, one “chink of light”, and that is the pace of the vaccine roll-out. As of this week, more than six million people – 9% of the population – had had their first jabs, and the Government is confident of hitting its target of 15 million by the middle of February. For a nation “starved of good news” this is something to savour; and yet “caveats remain” about the programme. For one thing, “wide variations in progress exist between regions”. For another, these numbers have been made possible, in part, by the controversial decision to delay second doses by 12 weeks or more – though the makers of the Pfizer/BioNTech jab recommend a gap of only three or four.

It’s true that Pfizer has no data on the impact of delaying the booster shot, said Michael Fitzpatrick in The Times. The BMA has urged the Government to cut the gap to six weeks. But when people are dying at a rate of more than 1,000 a day, “it makes sense to provide a single dose of the vaccine to the maximum number of people in the minimum possible time”. The

“primer” jab seems to provide a “good level of protection for several weeks”; and there is some evidence that delaying the booster actually increases the vaccine’s efficacy. If our aim is to save as many lives as possible, then the strategy is the correct one, said Deborah Dunn-Walters in The Guardian. But anxiety about how much protection the jab offers serves to highlight an important point: even if a vaccine has an efficacy of 95%, one in 20 people could get Covid-19.

That is why talk of issuing people with vaccine passports is premature, said The Economist. Aside from the ethical questions that arise from allowing a lucky few access to normal life while the rest linger in lockdown, it may not be safe to let the vaccinated roam free. They may not fall ill themselves, but they may still be able to infect others. There is also the risk that if a virus circulates in a partially vaccinated population, it will gain resistance to that vaccine, said James Kirkup on UnHerd. So even after a big chunk of the population has had their jabs, we should keep a lid on things. But it won’t be easy. Many over-60s are likely to stop playing by the rules once they feel safe; and then the young, who aren’t at much risk anyway, will see no reason why they shouldn’t cut loose, too. The nation’s willingness to stand together during this crisis is going to be tested as never before.