What the commentators said
Four of the last five Tory premiers have now faced party votes on whether they should stay in office, said Martin Kettle in The Guardian. In every case to date, it has spelt the beginning of the end. I certainly can’t see Johnson coming back from this, said William Hague in The Times. It’s not as if Monday’s vote represented a conclusive defeat of a rival faction or challenger. The PM succeeded merely in clinging on to office in the teeth of his party’s “gathering feeling of hopelessness”. Indeed, it was the “worst possible result” from the Tories’ point of view: the PM survived, but is now limping on with an unsustainably low level of support.
Further obstacles lie ahead, said Daniel Finkelstein in The Times. The Tories could be hit by two by-election defeats later this month, and then there’s the report from the Commons privileges committee, which may conclude that the PM lied to the House about Partygate. But none of this necessarily spells Johnson’s imminent departure. He still enjoys the backing of the Cabinet, and Tory rebels have yet to cohere behind any alternative agenda or candidate. What’s more, unless the 1922 Committee changes its rules, he can’t be challenged with another confidence ballot for a year. But the Tories surely can’t go on like this, said Allison Pearson in The Daily Telegraph. Johnson has thrown away the support he once enjoyed among voters with his arrogant behaviour and tax-and-spend policies. Tory canvassers report that his name is now mud. Indeed, said Martin Fletcher in The New Statesman, the man once dubbed the “Heineken Tory” is becoming, in the words of one pollster, the “Conservative Corbyn”.
If Johnson tries to stick it out, the chances are he will be forced out of office later this year, either by another ballot or a ministerial revolt, said Paul Goodman on Conservative Home. Rather than put himself and his party through that, he should voluntarily stand down, leave as “master of his own fate, undefeated at the ballot box, either nationally or at Westminster”. It would be an inglorious end for the man who led the delivery of Brexit, the vaccine rollout and support for Ukraine. “But he would at least be, as the saying has it, taking back control.”
What next?
The PM is expected to give a joint speech with Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, next week setting out the Government’s plans for boosting growth. A No. 10 source said the speech would focus on cutting regulations rather than unveiling new tax cuts. There has also been speculation about a reshuffle to reassert the PM’s authority.
Some rebel MPs, meanwhile, have vowed to keep up their efforts to oust the PM by going on “vote strikes”, reports The Guardian. They suggested Johnson would be forced to avoid tabling key legislation for fear of facing mass defiance. Other rebels say they’ll give Johnson until party conference season in September to prove he understands their concerns.