Stat expert Mark Broadie reveals the truth about Augusta

This is going to be bad, right? Well, not necessarily. Professor Mark Broadie’s projections are much lower than you might expect. And here’s why…

“The primary factor in the difficulty of a golf course is length,” reveals Broadie. “Because of this my first step was to use simulation and a number of other methods to see how many shots players of different handicaps could be expected to take on a 440 or 510-yard hole. After this, the next step was to look at other factors that affect golfers’ scores, such as out of bounds, long rough, water hazards, course undulations and fast greens. Of these factors, long rough is probably the one that affects mid and high handicappers’ scores the most, and since Augusta does not have much of this it is actually less penal than traditional US Open venues.”

Thus, after a few more simulations, the professor at Columbia Business School came up with the following predicted scores: Scratch: 80 Five: 86 10: 91 15: 97 20: 102 Amazing, huh? But before you get too big for your soft spikes, Broadie does have a caveat. “These scores do not include ‘the first-time playing effect’,” he says. “This phenomenon typically adds two or three strokes on a regular course, but due to the speed of the greens it could easily add three to six strokes at Augusta.” Most of us would just be happy to get the chance to put these predictions to the test.