augusta’s MAJOR TALKING POINTS
1. WHO WILL HANDLE THE PRESSURE BEST?
Following Jon Rahm’s £450 million LIV switch, Europe’s two biggest stars – and joint Masters favourites – are now plying their trades on opposite sides of golf’s biggest divide.
While it would be fun to cast this year’s Masters as the first head-tohead between the PGA Tour’s loyal white knight Rory and a treacherous defector in Rahm, you’re more likely to see the pair having a chipping contest outside the clubhouse than exchanging cross words in the car park.
Rory has softened his staunch anti-liv stance of late, admitting he’s “changed his tune” and has “no problem with (Rahm) going, if that’s what he wants to do”, while Rahm has expressed his gratitude for Rory demanding a Ryder Cup rules rewrite to ensure the Spaniard can play at Bethpage in 2025. But if the Masters does become a duel between Europe’s two best golfers, who will come out on top? The form book would suggest Rahm, who has finished inside the top 10 in five of the last six Masters, including last year’s victory. He also possesses the best scoring average (70.50) among players who have logged 25 rounds or more at Augusta.
Rory, on the other hand, has missed the cut in two of the last three Masters, including last year. History isn’t on Rory’s side, either. The typical Masters winner gets the deed done on his sixth attempt and at an average age of 32. This will be Mcilroy’s 16th attempt and he’ll turn 35 shortly after.
Rahm, meanwhile, faces the challenge of successfully defending the Masters, a task so difficult that only three men, legends – Jack Nicklaus, Sir Nick Faldo and Tiger Woods – have ever managed to do it.
All signs point to a winner coming from elsewhere, which brings us nicely onto another player whose capabilities are being called into question for an entirely different reason…
THE TYPICAL MASTERS CHAMPION WINS ON HIS SIXTH ATTEMPT AND AT AN AVERAGE AGE OF 32. THIS WILL BE RORY MCILROY’S 16TH ATTEMPT AND HE’LL TURN 35 SHORTLY AFTER
2. WHAT’S WRONG WITH SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER?
The answer is pretty obvious to anyone who’s watched him putt from inside 10ft. Tee to green, he is the best golfer on the planet – and he has been for a while. But stick a putter in his hands and things start to unravel.
At the Genesis Invitational, the World No.1 ranked second in Strokes Gained (SG): Tee to Green, first in SG: Around the Green and flat last in SG: Putting. He’s already switched putters and recruited English coach Phil Kenyon in a bid to reverse his fortunes – but the issue isn’t going away. If anything, it’s getting worse.
He hasn’t won a full-field event in 12 months and is currently losing 0.4 strokes on the putting green per round. Rory spoke for many players when he said, “Scottie does everything else so well that he’s giving the rest of us a chance.”
It’s hard to argue with the numbers, but Augusta has always been a rare anomaly, a place where you don’t necessarily have to putt well to win. It should play right into Scheffler’s hands, just like it did in 2022...
3. CAN TIGER ROAR AGAIN?
Let’s not get carried away. Tiger Woods has had more surgeries than he’s had top 10s over the last four years, but you’d be a fool to completely write off a man who could set yet another record by making his 24th consecutive cut at the Masters. Of course, the 15-time Major champion will be coming into the tournament a little undercooked, having withdrawn from the Genesis Invitational after six holes of the second round due to illness, but the signs up until that point had been encouraging. “He was playing quite nicely, hitting lots of fairways,” says Dame Laura Davies, who was watching the action at Riviera. “(His) putting’s been great; he’s still holing those very important five and 10-footers. If he is going to be fit – and it looked like the signs for that are good with his body – then I think we’ve got lots to look forward to. Without a doubt he will win (a tournament) this year – if he stays fit.” Tiger’s plan moving forwards is to play once a month and focus on the big events, which means The Players Championship in mid-march is likely to be his only outing before the Masters. At the time of writing, he is currently 100/1 to win a sixth Green Jacket this year, the longest odds he’s ever been. We certainly won’t be the only ones to be tempted by that!
5. WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF A BRITISH WINNER?
Barring any surprise late changes to the field, just six or seven golfers will represent Great Britain & Ireland at Augusta, down from 14 three years ago. With all due respect to former winners Sandy Lyle and Ian Woosnam, their decision not to compete is unlikely to influence the likelihood of a British winner, but the home challenge is worryingly thin without the likes of LIV defectors Paul Casey, Lee Westwood, and Ian Poulter. That said, GB&I’S magnificent seven does include five Major champions, and you could make a case for Mcilroy, Fitzpatrick, Fleetwood, Hatton, Lowry and Rose all being legitimate contenders.
Ironically, the only Masters champion among that bunch is 2016 winner Danny Willett, and he’s barely been seen since undergoing surgery to cure a long-standing shoulder problem. He hasn’t played competitively since September and now faces a race against time to be fit for the only Major he’s currently qualified for. We can think of easier places to make a comeback!