FUTURE PROOF
Paul Horrell, TG’s human lidar sensor, on what’s coming around the corner
Back in the mid-2010s, we were ceaselessly told self-driving
cars would be here in 2021–22. Lately, I’ve been asking some of the technology’s most outspoken cheerleaders for a sitrep. Is that still the timing? In short, no. Not in a way a normal human, as opposed to an over-excited tech guru, would call self-driving.
Elon Musk said in 2015 that in 2017 a Tesla would go across the US without its ‘driver’ ever touching the controls. In 2019, it hasn’t happened. I went for a ride around London in a self-driving Leaf two years ago. But it was an eerily quiet neighbourhood and the project leader admitted that to negotiate the middle of the city would need an almost unforeseeably cleverer system.
The other day I spoke to Philippe Klein, Nissan board member in charge of all this. Your firm used to say autonomy would be affordable in 2022: when will you have a car that will drive itself through the centre of a European city, avoiding the pedestrians and bikes? “I can’t answer that. Probably five years in certain environments. Not driving around the Arc de Triomphe, though. For that, no one knows. The technology isn’t ready. Nor the regulation. And then you will need social acceptance.”
OK, let’s move up the price chain. The BMW iNEXT technology flagship, to be launched in 2021, is claimed to be capable of self-driving on a motorway, and in 2024 it might even allow the human to sleep until the off-ramp. Motorways being free of sharp bends, oncoming mopeds or pedestrians. I press BMW’s head of R&D Klaus Fröhlich on when it’ll drive me home to central London. No, he too says European cities are really difficult, and refuses to give a date. Yet he adds that once the tech arrives, laws will change fast. “If cities can solve their problems – congestion, pollution, accidents – of course they will allow it.”
Launching the A8 in 2017, Audi called it the world’s first car capable of ‘level three’ autonomy – going on major roads for long distances without the driver overseeing it. Then it emerged the car actually wasn’t ready, because it would need a hardware update to meet the regulations. Regulations as yet unfinished. Now Audi’s new CEO Bram Schot backpedals. “People underestimated the difficulty of legislation for level three, and of tech for level four.” Anyway, he wonders if people want it. “There’s an opportunity for level five in robotaxis, but for private cars I see little takeup.”
Mercedes new-tech chief Jochen Hermann says the same. Taxis and vans will get it first, because there’s a big cost saving in putting a paid driver out of work. “But for a private car it’s so expensive.” Wow, too dear, even for an S-Class.
According to BMW’s autonomy chief, full self-driving won’t happen until we see as-yet-unavailable computer power and algorithms come on stream, and better sensors, and changes in the law, and a connected AI centre to help the car out when it’s baffled. Quite the laundry list.
Meantime, keep enjoying the DIY. The future is slipping further into the future.
“VANS WILL GET SELF-DRIVING FIRST. THERE’S A COST SAVING IN PUTTING A DRIVER OUT OF WORK”