May could look to Wales to govern with minority
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“That said, the results proved that there is a strong and growing Conservative vote in Wales, and those of us who were attached to the successful Vote Leave campaign in 2016 learnt that a positive message of hope and opportunity can persuade people to vote. We simply didn’t manage that during this campaign.”
He said nevertheless that the Government had to get on with the job of negotiating terms with the 27 remaining members of the EU.
Meanwhile another senior Welsh Tory, who did not want to be identified, told us the Tory campaign across the UK had been “disastrous” and that the only reason Theresa May was still in post was because the run-up to Brexit talks wasn’t the time for the party to have a bruising leadership contest.
The source said: “It’s only a matter of time before she goes. She has lost her credibility after calling an election that was wholly unnecessary.” AN “incredibly chastened” Theresa May could look to Wales for how to run a minority Government, a Swansea politics expert has said.
Professor Jonathan Bradbury, of Swansea University, said Welsh Labour had never had a proper majority in the Senedd since devolution but had shown “tremendous discipline” in pushing forward programmes of legislation.
“It will be an immense test,” said Prof Bradbury.
But he added that Mrs May’s unscheduled alliance with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to ensure the Conservatives have the all-important House of Commons majority has form.
“It is clear that they have worked together in Parliamentary votes since 2015,” he said.
It was the best option, he said, for a stable Government from the Tories’ point of view.
“The disadvantages are the considerable power vested in the hands of the DUP, and that might mean implications for how the UK approaches the power-sharing situation in Northern Ireland, and the approach to Brexit and the Northern Ireland border,” said Prof Bradbury.
“Theresa May will have to consult closely with the DUP, who are strongly pro-Brexit.”
He said the result had restricted Mrs May’s hand on public spending and taxation plans, and would requite skilful manouevring.
“She is going to have to be politically very capable if the Government is going to be stable,” he said. “You have got to have a style which is very inclusive.”
Prof Bradbury said the Conservative manifesto had little of cheer in it.
“They only said how hard things were going to be,” he said.
Asked if another election could be called in the coming weeks or months, he replied: “The Government has got to get on with the Brexit negotiations. I think they will avoid another election.
He added: “If the Conservatives perform well over the next couple of years, they might yet go for another election. Theresa May might bounce back but she will be incredibly chastened.”
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Prof Bradbury said the history of minority UK Conservative governments was a mixed bag. He described the experience of John Major’s administration in the early 1990s as “a tremendously corrosive experience” for the Tories.
On Brexit negotiations, Professor Bradbury said Mrs May would have wanted a big majority so she could afford to ignore the stridently anti-European voices from within her party and that EU leaders might well have hoped for the same result because it meant more room for compromises.
He said Mrs May could now not afford to alienate her own MPs but also said a softer stance on Brexit would be hard for the Lib-Dems to turn down, and could also garner some support from the pro-Remain SNP.
“Labour would have to take a view,” he said.
Prof Bradbury added the swift process of digesting the election result and forming a new Government reflected well on the democratic system.