THE ROAD TO NOWHERE
Around 80,000 motorists a day use the M4 in Wales but it is brought to a standstill, causing widespread gridlock, 30 times a day, costing the nation’s economy £165m a year. Tom Houghton reports
WALES’ motorway is brought almost to a standstill 30 times a day – costing the nation’s economy £165m, it has been revealed.
Wales on Sunday has obtained statistics showing the sheer scale of the disruption caused on a motorway now dealing with far more traffic than it was designed to cope with.
The figures from traffic service Inrix show that solely on the stretch of the M4 in Wales, from Caldicot to Carmarthenshire, there were 10,809 traffic jams over the last 12 months.
That is an average of more than 900 a month or 30 every single day.
Earlier this month a fatal crash caused the M4 to close for five hours, causing congestion to hit nearby town and city centres.
Inrix uses sophisticated calculations based on the volume of cars caught up and the extent of the delays to calculate the effect on the economy of lost time and delays.
It has calculated that the worst month for economic impact was during the summer holidays in August this year, when the economy lost £18m because of traffic jams, and that in total over the last year it has cost a whopping £165,369,791.
It revealed that junction 38, in Margam, had the most traffic jams, with junction 42 – Briton Ferry – coming second.
The next busiest junctions were 28 and 29 between Cardiff and Newport.
The data covers the 12 months from September 2016 to August this year, and revealed that July and November saw the highest incidence of traffic jams on the Welsh section of the M4 but that the ones seen in April and August were the worst for impact – being 33% more severe than the average jam.
Inrix said it calculated the economic impact by assessing “the value of wasted time, fuel and unnecessary carbon emissions as a result of the delay imposed on drivers by these traffic jams”.
Transport experts say that the M4 sees so many traffic jams because it is used not only for long-distance trips but also, particularly around Newport, for local journeys.
Cardiff University professor Andrew Potter said it was the “only decent road going east to west”.
“The alternatives either route through urban areas like the A48, or don’t really go in the right direction, such as the Heads of the Valleys,” he said.
Professor Stuart Cole, of the University of South Wales, said that the number of cities in a short stretch contributed to the problems.
He said: “This stretch of road is the link between Bristol, Newport, Cardiff and Swansea – four big cities. Cars go towards the motorway a bit like a magnet as it’s perceived as being faster than other routes – and it is, generally.
“The M4 is seen by everyone as a big, useful road, and people expect they can do good time on it. Between 4.30pm and 6pm, it’s very, very busy because everybody’s going home. But whenever there’s an accident, it just cannot cope.”
According to the Department for Transport, in 2013 74,000 motorists used the M4 in Wales every day, and in 2014 that number rose to 76,000, which at the time was the “busiest year” since records began in 2002.
But Prof Cole said numbers at present are more like between 80,000 and 90,000.
When that volume of cars is diverted onto the surrounding roads, it brings gridlock to the entire region.
Recently, part of the M4 was closed for more than five hours after a serious crash, and it was announced on Wednesday that a 70-year-old man from Swansea died after a collision involving a Ford Mondeo and Mercedes Sprinter close to junction 23A at Magor.
Delays hit a huge area, including clogging up traffic in Newport city centre and its surrounding towns.
Steve Brooks, national director of transport charity Sustrans Cymru, said: “This latest crash is another sad reminder of how vulnerable South East Wales is to problems on the M4.
“The road is notorious for congestion, gridlock and serious road traffic accidents.”
Prof Cole said: “It soon builds up. If an accident happens, say in rush hour, you have 5,000 vehicles stuck behind it in the first hour, 10,000 vehicles in the second, and there’s soon a tailback of 15 miles until police can divert traffic off the motorway. That obviously takes time, but people will keep coming.”
He said nearby routes around the motorway are not prepared for diversions.
“Local roads are not able to cope. They are only meant to be smaller roads and those taking people to their destinations, or home, like the A48.
“It’s just not going to be able to cope with those sorts of traffic levels. It means clogging up all sorts of roads.
“The M4 was built as one of the major post-war trunk road improvement projects back in 1956.
“The stretch between junction 18 to the west of Newport was opened in 1966, but Prof Cole said, it was “inadequate from the start”.
He explained: “Elsewhere in the UK, they were building motorways with four or six lanes, while it was just three or even two on this stretch.
“If a proper motorway had been built, maybe these issues would not have arisen, but hindsight is a great thing.
“I can say it was, and still is, an inadequate motorway, and it has been right from the start.”
Prof Potter, who is a reader in transport and logistics, said as the M4 did not follow the normal standard for motorways when it was built, with sharper curves and steeper hills, there is a risk of accidents.
Prof Cole added: “You can say it’s a victim of its own success.
“The south east of Wales is now where most of the industry is.
“The population of Wales is three million, and 1.3 million live in that tiny corner. “If you draw a square from Barry to Pontypridd to Torfaen and down to Newport, that’s well over a third of the population of Wales, and 40% of traffic.”
Curren t options in the pipeline to
This stretch of road is the link between Bristol, Newport, Cardiff and Swansea – four big cities. Cars go towards the motorway a bit like a magnet as it’s perceived as being faster than other routes – and it is, generally PROFESSOR STUART COLE OF THE UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH WALES
ease congestion on the M4 are in the form of the South Wales Metro, which will involve electrification of the Valleys Lines, and the M4 relief road, of which a “blue” and “black” route are both being considered, to build a new stretch of motorway around Newport.
On the relief road, Prof Potter added: “In the short term, the situation is unlikely to change, and may get worse with the removal of the Severn Tolls.
“The M4 Relief Road around Newport will help to avoid the bottleneck at the Brynglas Tunnels and therefore help to improve the situation.
“However, developments with the South Wales Metro should also play a role in reducing the region’s dependence upon car transport, encouraging public transport use instead.”
Welsh Government Economy And Infrastructure Secretary Ken Skates said: “I have been very clear that resolving the issues we see all too frequently on the M4 around Newport is an absolute priority for me and this Welsh Government.
“The proposed M4 project is currently being scrutinised by an independent inquiry to test whether it is the long-term, sustainable solution to these problems.
“Coupled with our plans for a greatly improved rail service, a fully integrated South Wales Metro and continued improvements in active travel, communities across South Wales and beyond can expect to see big improvements in their travel experience.
The debate over the M4 is between those favouring the “blue” route and the “black” route.
The black route is the Welsh Government’s favoured option, and would be a new six-lane motorway running from the present Junction 23A at Magor to Junction 29 at Castleton, with a new bridge over the River Usk south of Newport.
The Blue Route, proposed by Prof Cole, would run further north than any of the other three routes and use the A48 Southern Distributor Road and the Steelworks Road, converting it to a four-lane dual carriageway.