DRAGONS V OSPREYS, RODNEY PARADE, 5.35PM
E XAMINE the Guinness PRO14 table and it makes grim reading for record fourtime champions Ospreys while the Dragons are occupying their usual place in the lower reaches.
Ospreys are bottom of Conference A and behind Zebre. Yes, you read that right, the Italian out-fit previously regarded as easy beats.
Steve Tandy’s men have won only two of their 11 fixtures in the PRO14 and scored a miserly 15 tries. Even South African strugglers Southern Kings have got more.
Ospreys have come out on top in just five of their 17 matches in all competitions this season. It’s an indictment of their collapse when you consider where they were at the same stage last season.
They had won 13 of their 17 games, were in the midst of a 13-match unbeaten run stretching over three months, and were sitting pretty in the PRO12 table.
But since March 3, Ospreys have been beaten 18 times in 24 competitive outings. It’s a startling statistic when you consider the quality and depth in their squad.
Their chances of qualifying for next season’s European Champions Cup from the PRO14 appear over while it would take a rugby miracle to reach the Guinness title play-offs. Bomb out of this campaign’s Champions Cup next month – they host holders Saracens before going to French heavyweights Clermont Auvergne – and their season will effectively be over.
So they need a confidence-boosting win over the Dragons at Newport’s Rodney Parade on New Year’s Eve ahead of a home clash with Cardiff Blues and those major European challenges.
Dragons, surprisingly, have a better record than the Ospreys this season, courtesy of having a draw on their ledger. However, despite all the hype surrounding them – coach Bernard Jackman has played a blinder off the field grabbing headlines with his signings for next season – since being taken over by the Welsh Rugby Union during the summer recess their on-field record is worse at this point of the campaign than it was a year ago.
They had posted six victories under previous boss Kingsley Jones to five this term.
Dragons only have Kings, who are yet to win a game, below them in Conference B and have considerable distance to make up on Italy’s other representatives Benetton. So today’s battle with the Ospreys, who won 10-0 in a Rodney Parade mud-bath a year ago, is vital for both regions and could develop into a real scrap. Where will it be won? THE BATTLE OF THE BREAKDOWN THIS has been the problem area for the Dragons this season with injuries ruling out Nic Cudd and Harri Keddie, while former captain Lewis Evans has struggled for fitness and star back-rower Ollie Griffiths is sidelined following ankle surgery after only recently returning from a broken jaw.
Aaron Wainwright and Ben Roach, who were virtually unheard of at the start of the campaign, pack down either side of James Benjamin in a back-row up against Lions Justin Tipuric and Dan Lydiate, and Olly Cracknell, who was man of the match in last season’s fixture. SCRUM AND MAUL STATISTICS this season highlight the improvement of the Dragons with both areas becoming weapons. It was at the scrum where they caused the Blues problems while going down 22-17 on Boxing Day. But the Ospreys have a decent scrum with key man Dimitri Arhip in harness and a pack which has plenty of beef. ROOKIES VERSUS LIONS AT HALFBACK JACKMAN has wielded the axe by making eight changes with the most notable being the ditching of former Ospreys and Wales star Gavin Henson from the No.10 jersey.
He’s picked 20-year-old Arwel Robson at outside-half with Dan Babos, at 17 the first player born this century to appear in the PRO14, at scrum-half.
They will be up against Wales’ halfback pairing of Rhys Webb and Dan Biggar, who you’d expect to use their vast experience to control affairs. THREE-QUARTER LINE AND FULLBACK FORMER Dragon Dan Evans has seemingly recovered from the ‘dead’ leg which forced him off during the 12-9 defeat at the Scarlets to start at full-back.
But it’s a shame the player Wales have incredibly ignored isn’t up against Dragons’ most dangerous back Hallam Amos, who damaged his right ankle against the Blues.
New Wales centre cap Owen Watkin (Ospreys) and another international hopeful, Jack Dixon, feature in a fascinating clash in midfield while Dragons wing Ashton Hewitt hopes to push in Six Nations claim. TEAM CHECK DRAGONS: C Meyer; A Hewitt, S Beard, J Dixon, J Rosser; A Robson, D Babos; S Hobbs, E Dee, L Fairbrother, C Hill (capt), R Landman, A Wainwright, J Benjamin, B Roach. Subs: L Belcher, T Davies, N Thomas, R Blake, J Sheekey, S Pretorius, A O’Brien, J Sage. OSPREYS: D Evans; H Dirksen, K Fonotia, O Watkin, J Hassler, D Biggar, R Webb; N Smith, S Baldwin, D Arhip, B Davies, A Beard, D Lydiate (capt), O Cracknell, J Tipuric. Subs: S Otten, P James, M Fia, A W Jones, R McCusker, T Habberfield, S Davies, A Beck. ANDY HOWELL’S VERDICT OSPREYS strangled the life out of the Dragons during a largely one-sided encounter en-route to a 28-14 win two months ago and providing they turn up, so to speak, I expect the same to happen again.