WHO’S GOING TO WIN AT THE OSCARS, ACCORDING TO DATA?
THIS year’s Oscars could deliver some real shock results (that, or things are starting to look very predict- able).
Given the frontrunners in most categories are now miles ahead and clutching a brace of awards, and based on the predictive patterns of other awards over the past 18 years, this may mean it’s already pretty clear who is going to win tonight – unless the Oscars decide to deliver some surprise winners.
BEST PICTURE
This looks like the most competitive of the big awards – a straight race between Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, and The Shape of Water.
Three Billboards has picked up the most awards so far – five including the Screen Actors Guild Best Ensemble, which predicts the Oscar winner 56% of the time, and the Bafta, right 50% of the time, putting it slightly ahead in the prediction stakes.
However, the three top predictors for this category have all gone with The Shape of Water, which would suggest it’s on course for a win.
Both the Directors Guild’s pick for outstanding achievement in directing and the Critics Choice award have predicted the Best Picture winner 72% of the time since 2000, while the winner of the Producers Guild Award for Best Picture is a predictor of Oscar success 64% of the time.
The three awards have agreed 10 times since 2000, and come up with the same pick as the Oscars eight times.
One of the occasions when they were wrong was in 2006 when Crash beat Brokeback Mountain, and the other was last year, when all three went for La La Land, and the Oscar went to Moonlight.
Both times the best predictors were wrong but the Chicago Film Critics award and the Writers Guild of America award for best original script predicted the Oscar winner. This year they’ve gone for, respectively, Lady Bird and Get Out, so these might be in with a chance of a surprise win.
BEST DIRECTOR
Guillermo Del Toro is miles ahead here. Not only has the The Shape of Water director won the Directors Guild Award, the best predictor of Oscar success by some way at 83%, he’s also won the Critics’ Choice Award, which predicts the Oscar 53% of the time, a Bafta, 50%, and a Golden Globe, 50%.
When the predictive power of the Directors Guild Award fails, which it has only three times in the past 18 years, and just seven times since 1950, it’s usually because the Oscar voters decided to pick someone who has won just one previous award during the run-up awards season.
Roman Polanski in 2003 and Ang Lee in 2013 (this apparently a 10 yearly thing, watch out for the out of nowhere choice in 2023) – which this year would open up the field to everyone else apart from the so-far unrewarded Paul Thomas Anderson.
BEST ACTOR
Gary Oldman has picked up all the awards that best predict this – winning the Critics Choice and Screen Actors Guild awards, which both predict the Oscar 72% of the time, and the Bafta and Golden Globe for Performance in a Drama, both of which predict the Oscar 61% of the time.
These four awards have agreed on the best actor seven times in the last 18 years, and in all but one of those years, the actor has gone on to win the Oscar.
The only time this hasn’t been the case was in 2002, when all of the above were saying Russell Crowe, and the Oscar went to Denzel Washington in Training Day, despite the actor only being favoured by the LA Film Critics.
This year’s winner of the LA Film Critics award was Timothee Chalamet, whose performance proved popular with the awards picked by critics, suggesting that he may still have a chance at a surprise win.
BEST ACTRESS
As with the Best Actor award, Frances McDormand has picked up all the awards that best predict this – a Screen Actors Guild award, which predicts the Oscar 72% of the time, the Bafta and Golden Globe for Performance in a Drama, both of which predict the Oscar 67% of the time, and the Critics Choice award, a predictor 56% of the time.
When all four agree, as they have done six times in the past 18 years, the Oscar has been in the bag.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR AND ACTRESS
Again, for both these categories, there’s full agreement for the awards with the most predictive power.
Allison Janney’s wins at the Screen Actors Guild, which predicts the Oscar 78% of the time, Critics Choice, 72%, Baftas, 67%, and Golden Globes, 61%, make her a likely winner.
Past results suggest if three or more agree, the winner likely has it in the bag. All four agreed on Jennifer Hud- son in 2007, Mo’Nique in 2010, Octavia Spencer in 2012, Anne Hathaway in 2013, Patricia Arquette in 2015, and Viola Davis in 2017, and all went home with the Oscar.
Similarly, Sam Rockwell has so far picked up the Golden Globe award, which predicts the Oscar 72% of the time, Screen Actors Guild, 61%, Critics Choice, 56%, and the Bafta, 53%.
These awards have all agreed on Javier Bardem in 2008, Heath Ledger in 2009, Christoph Waltz in 2010, Christopher Plummer in 2012 and JK Simmons in 2015, and on all of those occasions, the winner also won the Oscar.
AND THE OTHERS?
For best song, it looks like a toss-up between Remember Me from Coco, which won the Critics Choice award, which predicts the Oscar 44% of the time, and This is Me from The Greatest Showman, which won the Golden Globe, which also predicts the Oscar 44% of the time.
The two awards have disagreed 12 times in the past 18 years, four times they were both wrong, and they’ve been right when the other was wrong four times each, although the last time the Golden Globes came out on top was in 2016, when it picked Writing’s on the Wall from Spectre, perhaps giving it the edge.