WHEN WILL IT END?
WE ARE in lockdown. Whether you are working from home, whizzing round the supermarket as fast as possible holding your breath or heading into your workplace because you’re essential you probably have one questions right now: When will it end?
Quite often the answer is simply – “it depends”.
We have spoken to leading experts and looked at the latest science to try to answer these questions as simply as possible.
The lockdown and social distancing measures are attempting to slow the spread of the virus though its death toll continues to rise. The challenge comes when you go about lifting it.
According to Michael Head, senior research fellow in global health at the University of Southampton, he expects the lockdown to come and go over the next few months.
He told us: “The lockdown will go on for at least another couple of weeks.
“Thereafter, we shall see what happens. It would not surprise me to see the lockdown being eased in a few weeks’ time, and then reintroduced later on in the summer. The pandemic response will be ongoing for quite some time yet, and the general population needs to be aware of that.”
In Wales, First Minister Mark Drakeford said last week: “I am saying to people in Wales that now is absolutely not the time to break the restrictions.
“We are committed to a review of the restrictions and will publish today revised regulations but by the time we get into the beginning of next week we need to make a decision as what will happen beyond Easter Tuesday.”
He added that he did not expect the lockdown to be lifted then.
But are we to be restricted to our homes until a vaccine or cure can be produced, tested, mass manufactured and delivered? Not necessarily.
A recent report by leading experts called “National coronavirus response: A road map to reopening” provides some hope. Published by the American Enterprise Institute, it sets out four phases for getting through the crisis. Though tailored to the USA, many of the principles are universal.
There are four phases and in each phase different actions are required. Once certain “triggers” happen we can move on to the next phase.
PHASE ONE – SLOW THE SPREAD. This is the phase we are in right now. During this phase governments should work to do the following things: Maintain physical distancing. Increase testing capacity and build a data infrastructure for rapid sharing of results.
The report says there should be the capacity to test all: hospitalised patients, healthcare workers, close contacts of confirmed cases and outpatients with symptoms.
Increase supply of personal protective equipment.
Massively scale up contact tracing, isolation and quarantine.
The triggers for moving to phase two are:
A sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days.
Hospitals are safely able to treat all patients requiring hospitalisation without resorting to crisis standards of care.
Ability to test all people with Covid19 symptoms.
Ability to conduct active monitoring of confirmed cases and their contacts.
PHASE TWO – REOPEN GRADUALLY As the study is a US study it suggests moving state by state.
In phase two, the majority of schools, universities and businesses can reopen. Local restrictions should be considered, such as those that limit people from congregating in close proximity. Those at high risk should still be limiting their social contact.
It will also be key in this stage to identify who is immune and study how long this lasts.
Those people can serve in high-risk frontline roles and support those who have to still distance.
We should revert to phase one if a substantial number of cases cannot be traced back to known cases, if there is a sustained rise in new cases for five days, or if hospitals in the state are no longer able to safely treat all patients requiring hospitalisation.
According to the report, once a vaccine has been developed, tested and receives approval, we can move to phase three.
PHASE THREE – ESTABLISH PROTECTION THEN LIFT ALL RESTRICTIONS
Once a vaccine or treatment is able to meet demand the vaccination pro