Coronavirus cases rise faster in current wave

CORONAVIRUS cases are now rising faster in the current wave of the virus than they were at the start of the second wave last autumn.

It’s been 60 days since the lowest number of daily coronavirus cases between the two waves but the Welsh infection rate is set to overtake the last peak in a little over a month, according to latest estimates.

Based on the current trends, it’s possible to predict when the sevenday infection rate will overtake the peak of the second wave, which topped out at 649 cases per 100,000 just before Christmas.

Using a simple growth curve based on the previous seven-day data up to July 19, the third wave will overtake the second wave around the beginning of the second week in September.

This takes into account the fact that cases typically increase exponentially.

Based on the projected growth alone, everyone in Wales would get Covid by the beginning of May 2022. But it’s important to note that the growth of cases is sensitive to any restrictions in place at any given time.

Graphs show how the October firebreak initially slowed the exponential growth in the infection rate during the second wave as cases spiralled out of control. Similarly, the Christmas lockdown also had a clear impact on infection rates.

Assuming the current third wave began at the start of June, then cases have initially followed an almost identical trend to the beginning of the second wave at the start of last September.

However, cases in this third wave are now slightly above the second wave of the pandemic, although it is imperative to note that patient numbers in Welsh hospitals are significantly different now compared to then.