The end is in sight but we’ve not yet reached it

This week we emerge from lockdown. Aspects of national life – such as schools – remained open during this phase thanks to the commitment of many and we will see a further loosening, including on rules relating to shops, hairdressers, many leisure activities and collective worship.

This is good news. Even better news is the approval of the first Covid vaccine for use in the UK by our independent regulator.

However while the end really is in sight we have not yet reached it.

While lifting lockdown Parliament voted to maintain a tiered system of regulations. I am absolutely convinced that it is the right approach.

We are on the cusp of getting beyond this virus but taking the risk to public health of letting Covid rip at this stage is absurd. We know the damage this virus can do, we know how infectious it is.

We know that the NHS cannot maintain important medical services while devoting resources and staff to combating a deadly once-in-every100-years global pandemic.

We know that we are entering the peak period for NHS demand. We know that the delays to operations and treatments caused earlier in the year must not be repeated.

We also know what happens if you leave lockdown and loosen up too far. Wales left lockdown three weeks ago. There has been a huge spike in infection rates and restrictions are being reintroduced this week.

Had Parliament allowed the country to ‘return to normal’, between now and Christmas a significant spike in infection would have resulted in either a return to a lockdown or, if the evidence was ignored, a public health crisis at exactly the worst moment for the NHS.

I have yet to see any alternative strategy that stands up to scrutiny. I rather admired Sweden’s determined execution of its own policy – the European approach substantially different to our own.

However unfortunately the policy has not worked. Sweden is enduring a deadly second wave and deep economic impact – and that in a country which benefits from many natural advantages in fighting Covid which do not pertain to the UK.

Our area, along with the rest of Sussex, are Tier 2. On my website I go through the determinants of the decision and the statistical comparison between the Isle of Wight (Tier 1) and us. I would like us to be in the lowest tier possible but I would much rather we start in a more restrictive position and allow rules to be sustainably lifted than to enter the purgatory of on/off restrictions. The tiers will be considered again on December 16.

We are in the final mile, this is not the moment to give up.