Fears for agriculture – but a bright future for country?
Farmers in Scotland and Northern Ireland are benefiting from one of the hottest summers as averages are raised by high nighttime temperatures. Arable farmers have seen their crops come off at low moisture content, pushing fuel usage down 60 to 70 per cent. Yields in some areas have been held back by the dry summer, but with very good quality. Overall, for once the north has fared better than the south and they are very happy.
Welsh farming unions are demanding a complete rethink of the welsh government’s NVZ (Nitrate Vulnerable Zones) policy. Since April of this year, fertiliser and slurry applications have come under heavy restrictions and both political attacks and an ongoing challenge by NFU Cymru, over the compliance costs to farmers, has meant that a review is now underway. The up-front costs of compliance are estimated to be more than the entire annual output of Welsh agriculture.
Shortages of labour and material, the added costs of consultants and advisors and a stock reduction of around 20 per cent overall has prompted industry to claim that this is unworkable. There is a willingness to find a sensible solution, but not one that will inflict such suffering on the agricultural economy. The unions claim of Natural Resources Wales’s figure of 6,200 pollution incidents in Wales, less than 10 per cent are caused by agriculture.
As HGV drivers and labour shortages continue, dairy farmers have been told to check their insurance cover and the rules for disposing milk if not collected. Muller was the latest to fail in picking up milk from farms in the Midlands, with farmers told to throw it away. Farmers in this instance were told the milk will be paid for and collections have resumed. There have been several incidents involving different milk buyers over the last fortnight.
The pig sector is in much worse shape with many now predicting an exodus from the sector after the worst six months of trading ever. There are still around 85,000 pigs on farm which should have gone for slaughter, incurring costs as they devalue every day. Production overall according to AHDB levy body is 27p per kilo higher due to feed and labour costs. This means farmers are currently losing £24 for every pig sold and that cannot continue – and there is now talk of a welfare cull.
Rather better news is that the UK is now free of bird flu. Chief veterinary officer Christine Middlemiss announced last week that the UK has now met international standards which enable us to declare that we are free of avian influenza. We can now look to open export markets but everyone must keep good bio-security on poultry farms as the disease continues to circulate in Europe and there is always the possibility that migrating birds this coming winter could increase risk.
Claims are being made that Natural England is being blamed for removing centuries of handson management on Dartmoor with its policies. Destocking on Dartmoor has led to molinia (purple moor grass) to grow out of control and take over. Dr Adrian Colston, who has spent 35 years in conservation work, blamed the government body for the mess and fire risk now present on the moor.
Cattle used to trample the molinia in the winter and control its growth but restrictions prevent them from doing this and while cattle and sheep will graze the grass in the spring while it is succulent and moist, it soon dies off and dries in the summer. If not trampled in the winter or sufficiently grazed in the spring it takes over and becomes a jungle according to Dr Colston, and many parts of the moor are swamped by it.
New areas of badger culling have been announced, adding to the 33 existing areas bringing the total to 40. In the south, three new areas including Hampshire, showing how this disease is approaching and is too close for comfort. This is all part of the government’s 25 year plan to eradicate bTB in England by 2038, with culling phased out over the next five years and no new licences granted after 2022.
Well Boris Johnson has certainly trampled all over the Labour Party’s stamping ground as he raises taxes to fund the NHS and social care; both a no-brainer for most sensible people, but of course there are the hard Brexiteers. They feel betrayed and rather than a Singapore on Thames, which was always a crazy idea, they now fear that they have a Scandinavian-style government.
They are very angry and of course Keir
Starmer, bereft of any ideas of his own, says it’s the wrong sort of tax and it won’t work. The truth is that we now have a Prime Minister who is the new Tony Blair! He can take these really huge and unpopular decisions and with his force of personality (and making sure a cabinet re-shuffle is on the cards), quell both the cabinet and the back-benches.
Credit where credit is due, he has this time honoured the pledge to throw a great deal of money at the NHS and a growing budget for social care as NHS waiting lists come down. With his own extremists lamenting the dream of small government, low-tax economy; opposition parties are not able to support exactly what is needed, because it’s being done by the Tories. Polls show the Prime Minister’s popularity is as low as it has ever been.
Does he care? No, he seems to revel in challenge and he is determined and confident that he will push this through; indeed he facies another 10 years in No 10 and a legacy of putting right the mistakes over the past 40 years! Who is going to challenge him? Certainly no one in any other party and I don’t see any big beast in the Conservative Party either. The Chancellor will need to go along with this spending (of which there will be more) or fall out with Boris.
Boris is not a man to fall out with. He is totally ruthless and he will take no prisoners and all cabinet members know this. How will it all end? We will soon see some re-shuffling I think and what happens to Rishi Sunak will be key; Foreign Office? He will not last as Chancellor, I believe, and far better for Boris to have him in one of the other top jobs than creating trouble and leading a revolt on the back-benches.
This is a fascinating time in Westminster and suddenly because of Brexit we have Boris, higher taxes, public spending and a liberal government as far as the economy is concerned. Labour shortages are pushing wages up for many of the poorest paid and as there is little competition for their jobs (which are often crucially important); are properly valued for the first time in decades. Apart from agriculture, which I am still fearful for, I can for the first time see a very different Brexit country to the one which was planned. We could see a similar pattern which followed the Second World War as we rebuilt and started looking after people properly. I sincerely hope so. Pic: Getty Images