Skills gap problem cannot be solved overnight

Well autumn has certainly arrived! Temperatures have plummeted; storms roll in from the Atlantic as the days get shorter. We can only hope for calmer weather later this month which will allow autumn drilling to continue and all the other jobs which need doing before winter. Grass growth is still good and everywhere looks very green.

A terrible time for agriculture as rapidly rising input costs, labour shortages, lack of fuel and supply chain failures are proving a real challenge to farming and the food business. There is a call for government to get a grip and have some sort of strategy in place with some long term solutions put in place. Fertilizer and feed costs have increased massively and fuel is up 40 per cent as fuel thefts from farms are also on the increase.

Supply chains cannot be switched on and off and cutbacks are being made due to labour shortages which will mean more problems for farmers and less British food on shelves. Pig farmers have started culling piglets on farm as they cannot cope with the build-up of stock numbers and this will escalate as time goes on with many in danger of being put out of business.

The danger is that as farmers go out we will find equilibrium as demand is not met and the price recovers, but once again we will have exported a chunk of our pig industry and imported food produced to different standards will increase. It’s a very sad state of affairs and should have been planned for but if the government means what it says about wages needing to go up and immigration not being the answer which is unprecedented; there will be a further lag before normality returns.

The government needs to recognise that it will take a few years to recruit, educate, train and test sufficient workers to fill the gaps left by retreating skilled EU workers and that it can’t be done overnight. The idea that temporary visas for a couple of months can solve the problem is just ridiculous.

There needs to be much longer visas but of course that is politically very difficult as Brexit was all about immigration for many people and they will see any rowing back as a betrayal. How long will ministers hold out? The pound is dropping in value despite the likelihood of interest rate increase and if international investors lose confidence it will rattle their misplaced confidence. A prime minister who reputedly thrives on chaos is not what we need to sort out this mess.

Many dairy farms are struggling for labour and some are considering cutting down on cow numbers, with horticulture badly hit we can see that production in that sector will reduce. Milk prices are going up, but input prices are eating into that extra price and more, but at least the market is moving upwards for most.

This just-in-time economy has worked well whist things run normally, but now once again (it was toilet rolls last time!) it has failed just as soon as people acted irrationally by topping up their cars when that was not necessary or normal behaviour.

All prices will rise on the back of this crisis and whilst the lower paid and those who are undervalued whilst their jobs are critical to everyday life are paid more, it will be interesting to see how the present government comes out of this once inflation takes hold and interest rates rise affecting everyone. Boris needs to pull a large rabbit out of the hat to get away with his chaotic and reckless government’s approach.

What of the opposition which is so badly needed? The Labour Party held its annual conference in Brighton last week and in among the infighting and bickering there was a session on agriculture in a fringe meeting jointly held with the NFU. Emily Thornberry, Shadow Trade Secretary was in full flow launching a scathing attack on the government, accusing them of driving farmers out of business.

She wants pragmatic trade deals with some level of tariffs on imports to allow for different costs and environmental damage in other parts of the world; quotas which allows us to meet import needs without a free-for-all, and minimum production standards to ensure a level playing field. The NFU agree that it is unfair to impose high standards on British farmers and at the same time expect them to go toe to toe with every other producer in the world.

There should be an offensive trade policy which would demand higher standards in other parts of the world who wish to send produce into our market. It is possible to insist that standards are raised without breaching WTO rules as the USA does with seafood imports from Thailand. The Labour Party plans to have a minister responsible for rural affairs in every department should it win the next election.

To win it needs a plausible Prime Minister in waiting and until last week Sir Keir Starmer was not that man, however he took on the lunatic left and won in several battles during the conference and came out as a far more credible figure with his ‘victory is more important than unity’statement; certainly more credible than his deputy who is so full of hatred and bile that she certainly is not fit for high office.

Will farmers trust Labour? Historically farming has done better under a Labour government than a Conservative one although most farmers vote Conservative; could that change as it did in the past (1997 and 2001)? You have to wonder why Labour does so badly given the chaotic government and Labour is certainly trying hard in rural areas now. If things do not improve and Starmer moves towards New Labour territory as he did at the conference; who knows?

According to an industry report it will take

2,000 years to renew the whole network of sewage pipes at the current rate of replacement and the lack of investment in the network is causing severe pollution with spillage into rivers due to overflowing pipes happening 400,000 times last year.

Contrast this to the pressure on farmers and the restrictions we operate under and I suspect most of the pollution farmers are blamed for is not caused by agriculture. The report condemns the chronic underinvestment since privatisation; laying the blame with government and Ofwat the regulator for not insisting proper investment in infrastructure takes place.

Given the hard line taken against immigrants, why does the Home Office not throw the book at those who are causing chaos on the M25? It is absolutely ridiculous that such disruption should be allowed by a few crackpots who glue themselves to any immovable object. The government is mocked by these idiots, who should have a couple of years in jail to sober up?

Peaceful protest is a fundamental right of our democracy, but this nonsense should be sorted out quickly before someone gets badly hurt or worse. In a defiant statement Insulate Britain said that their activists are undeterred by court action, but I think that the odd vicar and middle class, middle-age ladies would quickly come to their senses if they were put in the slammer for a year or two?