There’s only one equation to crack to end pandemic

MOST readers of this newspaper are older, educated people who believe trusted sources, such as the Western Daily Press and the BBC, are the best place to seek the news. They know the news media, in general, lives up to its responsibility to check facts and report faithfully.

During the pandemic the media has come in for some flack, some justified. But, in my opinion, it has mainly done its job of reporting all sides of the story, without becoming a government mouthpiece and without resorting to dodgy sources for sensational stories.

But there are many younger people who never read or watch the news and rely on social media to know what’s going on in the world.

Those people are easy prey to the many conspiracy theorists who take advantage of the internet to splurge what often amounts to nonsense.

I’m often surprised when friends share unsubstantiated “citizen journalism” or “quack science” urging me to believe some nonsense about why we should oppose lockdowns and the wearing of masks.

I am even more incredulous when people claim the entire pandemic is some kind of conspiracy dreamed up by a wicked megalomaniac to keep us all under control.

I’m not sure if the people who believe those theories are aware of the Dunning-Kruger effect. This (real and verified) psychological condition is a type of cognitive bias in which people believe they are smarter and more capable than they are. They do not possess the skills needed to recognize their own incompetence and the combination of poor self-awareness and low cognitive ability leads them to overestimate their own capabilities. As Charles Darwin wrote: “Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge.”

And I believe many of the people spouting crazy theories are suffering from Dunning-Kruger syndrome. But if you think my theory is a bit farfetched, there’s more recent science to back me up. Researchers at Cambridge University have published evidence that people with poor numerical literacy are far more likely to believe Covid-19 misinformation.

They conclude that improving people’s analytical skills could help turn the tide against the epidemic of “fake news” surrounding the health crisis.

Their work wasn’t a straw poll. The research was carried out in five countries and reflected national quotas for age and gender in order to evaluate susceptibility to coronavirus-related misinformation and its influence on people’s behaviour.

The study found the most consistent predictor of decreased susceptibility to misinformation about Covid-19 was numerical literacy, ie the ability to digest and apply quantitative information. The scientists themselves were surprised by the findings. Study author Dr Sander van der Linden said: “I was surprised to see numeracy playing such a strong role here. It was one of the single most important predictors. I like that finding in a sense because it gives me hope that there’s a solution out there.”

Just like everything else in the pandemic, there will be many who rubbish these findings, preferring to cite politics, social inequality and the decline in trust of the media for the rise and spread of fake news.

But let’s just do the maths. Compliance with public health guidance + willingness to be vaccinated = fewer deaths.

That’s the equation we have to crack to end this pandemic.