Experts warned of riots if rules not eased after jabs

SCIENTISTS advising the Government raised concerns that riots could erupt if easing coronavirus restrictions did not keep pace with the vaccine programme, new documents show.

The Scientific Pandemic Insights Group on Behaviours (Spi-B) said early this year that while conflict was not inevitable, it was necessary to take steps to prevent lifting restrictions from igniting or amplifying social tensions.

In documents published on Friday, Spi-B’s security and policing subgroup said that as the older population was vaccinated local restrictions could leave younger adults feeling their rights were being unfairly restricted.

This would be heightened if vaccinated people were given certification enabling them to avoid restrictions, the subgroup of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) added.

It said: “If the easing of restrictions does not keep pace with public perceptions of falling risk, perceptions of illegitimacy could increase, leading to resentment and lower levels of compliance - eg gatherings in local parks, unlicensed music events, and possibly overt ‘resistance’ - which may possibly require interventions from the police. These dynamics could lead to tensions which place a heavy demand on already stretched police forces, potentially creating circumstances in which conflict could develop.

“There is good evidence to suggest that such localised conflicts can become the basis of widespread rioting.”

The document, dated February 10, said falling death rates and hospital admissions alongside a successful vaccine programme would reduce how much of a threat the public felt the virus posed.

Other priorities such as employment may become more important and the perception of lower risk may lead to a drop in compliance with public health measures, it added.

It said: “If death rates and hospitalisations fall and successful vaccination rollout continues, public perceptions of the threat posed by the virus will correspondingly decrease and other priorities - eg employment - may become paramount.

“Thus, a perception of lower risk may correspond with increasingly lower rates of adherence to public health measures and an increasing sense that restrictions are unnecessary.”

The report - which was produced before Prime Minister Boris Johnson unveiled his road map out of lockdown on February 22 - said while there was not a “high likelihood” of social disorder, caution and “appropriate action” were needed to prevent it.

It said that when restrictions were eased, data “consistently suggests” that deprived communities were more likely to be subject to police intervention than others.

Control measures such as mass testing and local lockdowns were likely to “interact with social and economic conditions” in ways that may spark social tensions, the document added.

It said: “If and when there is a transition to this form of outbreak control - ie intensive localised testing plus localised lockdowns - data consistently suggests that deprived communities are more likely to be subject to intervention than others.

“Whilst conflict is not inevitable control measures are likely to interact with social and economic conditions in ways that may ignite or amplify social tensions.”