Poll predicts West Tories are set to lose their seats
ANUMBER of senior West Tory MPs, including Cabinet ministers, are at risk of losing their seats at the next general election, according to new polling by YouGov.
The polling company has been carrying out research in Leave voting seats in the South West held by the Conservatives and forecasts the party could lose more than a quarter of them at the next general election.
The research was published as voters in Tiverton and Honiton went to the polls in a by-election yesterday, following the resignation of Tory MP Neil Parish.
The Tories are defending a majority of more than 24,000 in the Devon seat and the result of the election was expected in the early hours of this morning. If the Conservatives were to lose such a huge majority it would send a political shockwave across the West, where the party holds dozens of seats.
YouGov has polled 800 people in 41 South West seats that it is branding – slightly strangely – as the Conservative Celtic Fringe.
The seats are those in the region that voted Leave in the Brexit referendum of 2016 and have been held by the Conservatives since at least 2015. The figures suggest that, if an election were being held now, the Conservatives would lose 11 of those 41 seats, with a further four too close to predict.
Associate director of YouGov, Patrick English, says: “Across the South West of England sit a raft of Leavevoting, ageing, and sparsely populated constituencies which have been held by the Conservatives since at least 2015, when a blue sea swept the region, propelling David Cameron to a Westminster majority.
“But despite looking and sounding like exactly the sort of constituencies and voters that the Conservatives ought to be able to bank on as part of their voter coalition, rumblings in the Conservative Celtic Fringe threaten to open up a whole new front in Boris Johnson’s quest to win the next election.”
YouGov said that across the 41 seats concerned the Conservatives received 57% of the vote in 2019, with Labour and the Liberal Democrats on 19% apiece.
Now, according to its survey, the Conservatives have dropped a full 19 points down to 38% of current voting intention. The Liberal Democrats are now on 22%, and Labour have climbed by five points to 24% of the vote.
Of the 11 seats most at risk, the pollster predicts Labour would pick up six, the Liberal Democrats four, and one could go independent.
Among the seats that it says are most at risk are the Camborne and Redruth seat of Environment Secretary George Eustice, while fellow Cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg’s North East Somerset seat is one that YouGov believes to be on the cusp of falling.
It also believes the Chippenham seat of Universities Minister Michelle Donelan, the Taunton Deane seat of Defra Minister Rebecca Pow and the Wells seat of Armed Forces Minister James Heappey are all likely to be lost to the Liberal Democrats.
Meanwhile, Labour, according to the polling, is likely to pick up Tory seats in Gloucester, South Swindon and Kingswood.