Testing time ahead as working communities go to the polls
Political Editor David Williamson ponders the looming by-elections in Copeland, Cumbria, and Stoke-on-Trent, and what the results could mean for Labour, the Tories, and especially Ukip
TOMORROW will be a whiteknuckle day for the Tory, Labour and Ukip leaders with two key by-elections taking place.
Labour is fighting to hold on to both the Cumbrian constituency of Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central after two of its MPs quit.
A Tory win in Copeland would send Theresa May’s stock even higher as she prepares to start Brexit negotiations, and Ukip’s own leader is on the Stoke ballot paper.
Why is there so much interest in these two by-elections?
These are key tests for Labour, the Conservatives and Ukip.
If Labour loses both seats Jeremy Corbyn’s critics will say this is yet more evidence that he cannot lead the party to victory at the next election and should get off the stage as soon as possible.
If Ukip’s UK leader, Paul Nuttall, fails to win Stoke then there will be real questions about whether there is a future for his party post-Brexit. Mr Nuttall will come under pressure to quit and there is already speculation that Nigel Farage will eventually return to lead the party once again.
If the Conservatives win Copeland, which traditionally votes Labour, they will be cock-a-hoop. This will be seen as proof that Theresa May’s strategy of targeting working-class voters while refusing to back-pedal on Brexit is working.
The Tories can’t have high hopes of winning Copeland, can they? Aren’t by-elections the times when voters traditionally give parties of government a hard time?
The Conservatives have great ambitions to win the seat. This would be the first time the governing party has gained a constituency in a byelection since 1982.
Theresa May has invested her personal political capital by campaigning on the ground.
Why are the by-elections taking place?
Both were triggered by the resignation of Labour MPs.
Tristram Hunt quit as the Stokeon-Trent Central MP to take up a new role as director of the Victoria and Albert Museum. The former Shadow Education Secretary has a background as a historian and broadcaster.
Jamie Reed stood down as Copeland’s MP to become head of development and community relations at the Sellafield nuclear plant. Although he was seen as a critic of the Labour leader, he insisted his decision had “absolutely nothing to do with Jeremy Corbyn”.
Is this a golden opportunity for Ukip to embarrass the traditional parties of power and storm the Commons?
Ukip’s leader, Paul Nuttall, lacks a seat in Westminster, where the party has just one MP.
Ever since the EU referendum was won in June, Ukip has faced the challenge of reinventing itself as a party with an important role to play in everyday politics.
Party infighting will have done nothing to inspire confidence among voters. Diane James quit as leader after just 18 days in the post but Mr Nuttall succeeded her with a pledge to “move into the areas the Labour party has neglected”.
The Stoke by-election looked like a unique opportunity for him to win a seat in Parliament. Ukip finished in second place behind Labour there in 2015 and there was a resounding vote for Brexit in 2016; here was a chance for Mr Nuttall to command national attention and score a victory against Labour at the same time.
But the extra scrutiny has brought major embarrassment for the Ukip leader. He said he was “very sorry” after admitting that claims posted on his website that he had lost close friends in the Hillsborough disaster were not true.
Mr Nuttall said he had not checked the press releases from 2011 and 2012 but the episode will have only hurt his credibility.
What issues will decide the elections?
In Copeland there are big local issues about nuclear power and the future of the maternity unit at the West Cumberland hospital.
The Tories have tried to present Jeremy Corbyn as a foe of nuclear energy. Sellafield is a significant employer in the area and there are questions about whether the planned Moorside nuclear plant will become reality.
Mr Corbyn has fought back, say ing: “I back the proposed new power station at Moorside which will bring thousands of skilled jobs, and hope the company can provide the necessary assurances on the strike price and value for money.”
As Stephen Bush, of the New Statesman, put it: “The outcome will come down to what the question that voters are asking when they vote is: if it is nuclear power, the Tories will win. If it is healthcare, Labour will triumph.”
In Stoke, Labour is trying to portray Ukip as a threat to the NHS. A Google survey suggested the NHS was the top issue for local voters (54.3%), followed by immigration (36.8%), Brexit (32.6%) and the economy (31%).
Will Jeremy Corbyn quit if Labour loses both seats?
It is reported the Labour leader has commissioned a “10,000-person study” to canvass views on his own future.
Shadow Home Secretary Diane Abbott said on Sunday the party will “go forward” even if both seats are lost.
At a national level, the challenges facing Labour were laid bare in an ICM poll which showed the Conservatives on 44% nationwide (up two points) and Labour on 26%
Mohammed Yaqub Akram, Independent; Zulfiqar Ali, Liberal Democrats; Jack Brereton, Conservatives; The Incredible Flying Brick, Official Monster Raving Loony Party;
Adam Colclough, Green Party Godfrey Davies, Christian Peoples Alliance; Barbara Fielding, Independent; David Furness, British National Party Local People First; Paul Nuttall, Ukip; Gareth Snell, Labour (down one).
Mr Corbyn reportedly told Labour colleagues this week that the byelections are on a “knife edge”.
Who is Labour fielding in the byelections?
Labour is represented in Stoke by Gareth Snell, a councillor and former leader of Newcastle-underLyme Borough Council. The former Remain supporter used a four-letter word to describe Brexit and has apologised for offence caused by Tweets about women on TV.
Ukip described him as a “foulmouthed young man with a lot of growing up still to do”.
In Copeland, Labour is represented by Gillian Troughton, a qualified doctor who now volunteers with St John Ambulance. She describes the nuclear industry as “vital” to the area’s economy and warns that the next-nearest hospital to West Cumblerland “takes over 45 minutes even on a blue-light run”.
Who do the Conservatives hope will win in Copeland?
The Tories have picked Trudy Harrison, a former community regeneration officer for Copeland Borough Council. She boasts of having helped local teenagers “get their dream BMX track” and has served as a parish councillor and school governor.