Dream week has City dreaming of play-offs
AS weeks go, it was pretty incredible. Cardiff City claimed stunning away victories over promotion hopefuls Leeds United and Derby County before annihilating bottom side Rotherham United 5-0 in the Welsh capital.
It saw Neil Warnock’s men cement their place in the top half of the Championship and got the Cardiff fans daring to dream of an 11th hour play-off charge.
So could the Bluebirds really achieve the unthinkable and claim a top six spot at the end of the season?
Here we take a closer look...
THE CURRENT STATE OF PLAY
CARDIFF are ensconced in 12th spot, fully 13 points behind Sheffield Wednesday in sixth ahead of last night’s Championship games.
Newcastle and Brighton look likely to be in the top two come the end of the season, while Huddersfield, Reading, Leeds and Wednesday occupy the play-off spots.
Norwich, Fulham and Derby each expect to make the top six come May. The Canaries are six points clear of Cardiff, Fulham have a four point advantage and Derby two points.
Fulham and Derby each have games in hand... but the Bluebirds host Fulham this weekend and will be looking to claw back the deficit on them to just two points.
THE ‘FAVOURABLE’ RUN-IN
THERE’S a well known saying about matches not being played on paper, but Cardiff’s run-in to the climax of the Championship season is largely a favourable one.
Fulham are a tough test in the Welsh capital on Saturday, but the Bluebirds hope to maintain momentum by winning that one.
Warnock’s men then have back-toback away trips against relegation candidates Queens Park Rangers and Blackburn.
Cardiff then end March with consecutive home games against Gianfranco Zola’s struggling Birmingham and fellow mid-table outfit Ipswich.
There’s no doubt that if Cardiff are to have any hopes of securing a top six place come the end of the season, they will need to have collected a hefty number of points in March as things get trickier in April.
The Bluebirds will be hoping to make fools of Wolves at Molineux on April 1 before travelling to Barnsley three days after.
Barnsley still have play-off aspirations of their own.
Then Brentford will head to the Cardiff City Stadium before Warnock takes his side to his home city to face Sheffield Wednesday at Hillsborough.
That could be another play-off crunch, as was the previous occasion when Russell Slade’s Cardiff went to Wednesday last April.
Nottingham Forest visit the Welsh capital on Easter Monday before the Bluebirds head to the DW Stadium to face relegation-threatened Wigan - with six points from those two fixtures being an absolute must as Warnock’s men end the campaign with games against promotion-chasing Newcastle and Huddersfield.
But even then things could work in Cardiff’s favour.
Newcastle could be up by the time Cardiff host them in the penultimate match on April 29, possibly as champions too, so could the foot be off the gas?
The last game is away to Huddersfield, whose place in the play-offs could be sealed by the time the Bluebirds heads to Yorkshire on May 7. Huddersfield could have their thoughts on a play-off semi-final by that stage, possibly even field a weakened side. THE average points tally of sides finishing in sixth place in England’s second tier over the last decade is 73.1.
Mick McCarthy’s Ipswich collected an impressive 78 points to earn a play-off place in the 2014-15 season, although they only pipped Wolves to a top six spot on goal difference.
On the flip side, current Premier League champions Leicester needed only 68 points to clinch a place in the play-offs during the 2012-13 season as the Bluebirds romped to the league title to secure their place in the Premier League.
Warnock’s men currently have 45 points with 13 games left to play, meaning the maximum they could end this season with would be 84 as there are still 39 on offer.
During Warnock’s tenure, the Bluebirds have amassed an impressive average of 1.68 points-per-game – more than double what they col- lected under former boss Paul Trollope.
But to reach the average tally of 73 points achieved by teams finishing sixth, they would need to boost that total to 2.15 points-per-game for the remainder of the season.
Cardiff would probably need to win at least eight of their remaining matches and collect a number of draws in their other games – or secure around nine victories alone.
It goes without saying that it would be a truly astonishing achievement if Warnock did guide the Bluebirds to a top six finish this season.
But it seems the bookies are fully confident that it is a feat, even by Warnock’s incredible standards, beyond the Cardiff City boss’ capabilities. (Odds courtesy of Sky Bet) Cardiff to secure promotion - (150/1) Cardiff to secure a top six finish (28/1) Cardiff to secure a top half finish (4/6) Cardiff to finish in the bottom half (6/5)
It was Cardiff legend Nathan Blake who first mooted the idea of a push for the play-offs in his popular Blakey’s Bootroom show on WalesOnline.
The thumping of Rotherham means the talk has suddenly started gathering in earnest.
As Blakey himself emphasised, the points gap is probably just a little too big and Cardiff have too much work to do.
But the beauty of the play-offs is that it at least offers hope until the end of the season, rather than midtable sides just play out their games with nothing riding on them.
Even if they do fall short, by going for it Cardiff will have built up momentum for next season – when Warnock will really have a crack at promotion.
This season it’s a back door job, but it’s definitely a tiny bit ajar.