May must deliver more than words
THERESA May will look around her before she addresses Welsh Conservative activists in Cardiff today and wonder if the forces that have engulfed Scottish politics will one day capture passions in Wales.
It is clear that the 2014 independence referendum did not settle the question for a generation. The subsequent transfer of powers to the Scottish Parliament did not satisfy the demand for greater autonomy.
The SNP won 56 of the 59 Scottish seats in 2015, and the Brexit referendum – in which a majority of Scots voted to stay in the EU – created a perfect opportunity to make another independence push.
Mrs May is adamant that this is not the time to stage another referendum. Campaigning to hold the UK together while negotiating the country’s exit from the EU would come close to a true mission impossible.
But she will know that if she appears the unreasonable one in this stand-off with Nicola Sturgeon, then she risks convincing undecided voters that it is time for Scotland to quit the UK.
Scotland has a very different history and culture from Wales. The presence of ancient and distinct institutions throughout Scottish life make it easy to imagine the country as an independent nation state.
It has centuries-old universities, a distinct legal system, the Church of Scotland and an oil industry. In contrast, our police service is not devolved, our judiciary operates on an England and Wales basis, and a greater share of our population cross into England for work, education and healthcare.
But Mrs May will know she cannot afford to take Wales for granted, not least because she has a slender majority in the Commons that would be even smaller if this nation had not elected 11 Tory MPs.
She will be left in no doubt about the desire to see the city deal for the Swansea region signed and delivered, just as she will be fully aware of the excitement which surrounds plans for the Swansea Bay tidal lagoon.
Equally, she may well be warned of the fury the failure to electrify the Great Western line to Swansea would ignite.
Margaret Thatcher regarded Wales with caution. Minutes from the 1980 meeting at which it was decided to give the go-ahead to S4C state: “The Prime Minister commented that the last thing the Government needed was to inflame nationalism again.”
Historians will debate why Scottish nationalism has been inflamed and talk about the disillusionment with a Westminster-based government brought about by the invasion of Iraq and how devolution has fostered a confidence in the country’s capacity for self-government.
Mrs May would do well to find time to think about Wales. If her desire to strengthen the union is anything more than rhetoric, she will have to demonstrate to people all the way from Holyhead to Newport that we are truly better together and that a fair and prosperous future awaits.