A welcome win – but areWales any better than they were in autumn?

RUGBY SENSE FROM THE S4C PUNDIT

WALES travel to Paris with the pressure off. Reputations were at stake for players and coaches alike against Ireland, but having secured a top-eight world ranking spot they can take on France confident and unencumbered.

This will be Rob Howley’s last game as temporary head coach and he has shown great loyalty to his players. He has made just one change in the last four games, when Alex Cuthbert made way for a fit-again George North after the England clash.

It has been a battling season in charge for Howley. The crushing defeat by the Wallabies during the autumn hung over the team until the performance against England.

There was much talk of evolution and being more creative, but developing the style and the squad had to make way for the greater need for results. The record for the season so far is five wins from eight games. A victory against France would make it six from nine and most people would admit that was an acceptable return.

The question I would ask is; are we a better team one season down the track?

Would we fare any better if we went back to New Zealand this summer? What have we learned about our players? Have we developed a style that suits our strengths?

These posers are a little harder to answer. The emergence of Ross Moriarty is a major positive. He is an oldfashioned bruiser and makes an impact on the game.

At some point Taulupe Faletau will return, so the player most under threat from Moriarty will be Dan Lydiate, when he himself is fit again. Much will depend on the priorities of the coach as to the balance of the back row.

Warren Gatland doesn’t strike me as a ‘two opensides’ type of coach, so the pressure remains on Justin Tipuric to keep showing his worth.

The big decision that Howley has made has been to replace Jamie Roberts with Scott Williams. I think it has freshened up the midfield and his passing skills have led directly to tries against Scotland and Italy.

Ken Owens has also established himself, not only as Wales’ first-choice hooker, but also as someone on course to be a Test Lion.

But essentially it’s the same team playing largely in the same way. This team has been together for a number of seasons and so they are not going to get better the more they play.

They have proven many times that physically they are a match for anyone and they are often at their best in the tense matches fought out in the Six Nations.

But for Wales to finish this season a better team than the one that lost to Australia, they must show that they are comfortable opening the game up and challenging teams with skills and ideas, as well as with power.

The two main areas that need addressing are counter and phase play. Wales are simply not a threat when returning kicks. It seems beyond obvious that Liam Williams should swap positions with Leigh Halfpenny.

Not doing it feels like a risk averse selection and that permeates through the team.

Stuart Hogg may well be the most defensively frail full-back in the Championship, but what he offers in offence is irreplaceable.

The problem with Wales’ phase play is that they become less threatening the more phases they go through. This is particularly true inside the opposition 22. They lose width and revert to one out runners. Wales become easier to contain the more they have the ball.

Changing this is a real challenge. How do you get players who have been successful in the past to alter what got has them there?

The simplest way is to change the personnel. Trying Sam Davies in the fly-half position. Playing flat to the line and reading the defence is his strength, but he can’t do that on the bench.

France are a much improved side and will not roll over at home. I expect they fancy their chances at taking on Wales in the set piece. Wales won’t win a slug fest against these giants so they have all the incentive they need to play with a bit more adventure.

They have beaten France for fun in recent years and they will be confident of doing the same again.

I think they will win by three points, but my predictions have been as inconsistent as the Wales team this year, so it’s a big game for the two of us!