The accomplished performer who still holds the stage at 50
As Carwyn Jones celebrates his 50th birthday, Martin Shipton looks at the career and future of Wales’ First Minister
WHEN they reach the age of 50, many politicians still harbour ambitions to win the top job they may have coveted from an early age.
Carwyn Jones, however, has been able to celebrate his 50th birthday as a seasoned First Minister who rose to the pinnacle of his career more than seven years ago.
If we judge politicians on the basis of their electoral success it’s easy to argue that he’s done a good job.
His first election as Welsh Labour leader was in 2011, when the party had been in coalition with Plaid Cymru for four years.
The arrangement had been necessary because of Labour’s relatively poor performance in 2007.
The two parties gelled and worked well together, even though some Labour AMs were disgruntled at the attention Plaid ministers received.
They needn’t have worried, as Labour won 30 seats at the next election and were able to govern alone.
As the 2016 election approached, there were doom-mongers who predicted that Labour would lose even more seats, opening up the possibility of some kind of non-Labour administration.
Part of the negativity stemmed from the mess at the top of British Labour, where the unexpected arrival of Jeremy Corbyn as leader threatened to tear the party apart.
But there were anti-Carwyn mutterings from some elements of Welsh Labour, accusing him of being lazy, of not having a vision, and of being unwilling to take tough decisions.
Less surprisingly, such accusations – and more – came from the opposition parties. But however much his detractors and opponents sought to discredit him, Carwyn had the last laugh when, in defiance of the generally gloomy predictions, Labour came out of the May 2016 election just one seat down.
Yes, it did so after seeing its percentage vote fall back significantly across Wales, but Carwyn had led his party to a second successive victory over a fragmented opposition.
Then, with the masterstroke of bringing Kirsty Williams, the only remaining Lib Dem AM, into the Cabinet, he was able to restore Labour to the same numerical strength it had held previously.
No doubt Mr Jones has lost count of the times he has been the subject of withering attacks by Adam Price or rhetorical flourishes from Andrew RT Davies. His response; it’s like water off a duck’s back.
Whatever his opponents throw at him, Mr Jones deflects criticism – sometimes with a put-down of his own and sometimes, perhaps less impressively, by simply ignoring it or responding to a point that hasn’t been made.
The fact is that he’s an accomplished performer who can deliver either reassurance or the semblance of it in dollops. At last year’s election, Mr Corbyn was kept out of Wales almost until the last minute, while Carwyn was consciously portrayed by his campaign strategists as a national leader whose stature clearly outshone his opponents’.
It’s no coincidence that his message can be described as quasinationalist or nationalist-light. This, again, is a construct that’s been perfectly worked out, and which has Plaid Cymru AMs gnashing their teeth because they know it’s effective.
None of this in any way diminishes the policy shortcomings of the Welsh Government.
Despite statistics that show more people are in work than ever, we know that many are on low wages and have low skills. The NHS, while continuing to be much-loved, has areas that need big improvement, and the quality of schools education needs to improve.
Wales remains the poorest UK nation despite the “economic powerhouse” that was promised at the dawn of devolution.
But it’s undeniable that, despite their best efforts, the opposition parties have not been able to persuade voters that they could do any better. General apathy aside – and that should never be underestimated – many people look at Mr Jones and come to the conclusion that he looks and sounds like a First Minister in the way his opponents don’t.
This is where Welsh Labour continues to have an advantage in the way British Labour, stuck with Mr Corbyn, doesn’t.
Why, in these circumstances, would the party want Carwyn to stand down?
He’s only just reached 50, there is no plot to remove him, and for as long as he’s in post the other parties have a problem.
Nevertheless, there’s been a bit of an assumption that he would step down towards the end of the current term, in time for his successor to bed in before the next election.
In the last term, Vaughan Gething and Ken Skates were being mooted as the two most likely future leadership contenders.
But at last year’s election the possibilities increased with the election of talented new AMs like Eluned Morgan, Huw Irranca-Davies and Jeremy Miles.
None of them has yet been promoted, although they have been doing what they can to raise their profiles.
They all know, however, that open manouevring could be fatal to their chances of success when a vacancy eventually does arise.
Another factor is that with Mr Corbyn having attracted huge numbers of new members to Labour, the succession in Wales is inevitably uncertain.
Carwyn Jones is in the enviable position of being able to determine his own time to go.