Wales stands to lose UK nation from hard
WALES is likely to be hit harder than any other part of the United Kingdom as a result of Brexit, a leading think tank has warned.
A new analysis by Demos sounds the alarm bell about the consequences for Wales of leaving the EU.
Researchers have flagged up the dangers posed by Wales’ reliance on EU funding and high level of exports to the EU.
The warning comes in the same week that Theresa May is due to trigger the start of the formal Brexit process.
It arrives as new polling shows the vast majority of MPs expect the UK will no longer remain part of the single market.
Demos warns: “Despite voting in favour of leaving the European Union, Wales stands to be the region worst hit by the UK’s departure from the EU. Wales is also one of the UK’s two leading exporters to the European Union, with over 60% of its exports going to the EU, and so would be most affected by potential tariffs.”
In contrast, it states, London and the southwest export “just over 40% of their goods to the EU”.
The analysis adds: “The devolved nations of Wales and Northern Ireland are also threatened by the loss of EU structural funds, which Wales benefits from far more than any other British region, with grants from EU funds representing almost 1% of the region’s Gross Value Added annually.”
Demos further cautions that sectors such as manufacturing and agriculture are at particular risk.
The analysis states: “Brexit will also likely result in the UK leaving, or retaining only partial membership of, the customs union. With tariffs imposed on British goods at the levels currently faced by non-EU states, industries at risk of being hit by the highest duties will be agriculture, forestries and fishing; mining and quarrying; and manufacturing.
“As a result of tariff changes, UK producers of dairy products, confectionary, alcohol and tobacco will be hit with the costliest duties, with the highest tariffs of exports into the EU at 33.5% for dairy produce... Manufacturing will also be particularly vulnerable to the threat posed by reduced immigration from and trade with the EU, given one in 10 of its workers come from the EU and a significant proportion of export products go to the EU (45%).”
Pollsters ComRes conducted a survey of a “representative sample” of 150 MPs. They found: Nine in 10 MPs expect the UK to leave the single market;
Six in 10 MPs expect the UK not to be part of the customs union;
Two-thirds of MPs expect the UK to remain formally associated with crime-fighting agency Europol postBrexit;
Seven in 10 MPs expect net migration to the UK to decline postBrexit.
Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies described the Demos report as “tiresome”.
He said: “The Welsh and British public have been sold prophecies of doom and gloom before now. According to project fear we should be holed up in a post-apocalyptic wasteland in threadbare clothes eating tinned food by now.
“In fact, the reality of our postBrexit experience has been very different. Instead of a wave of job cuts, plunging property prices and economic chaos, we’ve seen very clear evidence that Britain remains economically competitive and consumer confidence is high. These reports are tiresome. We need our best and brightest working constructively with the Prime Minister to secure a brighter future for the UK.”
But Plaid Cymru Brexit spokesman Jonathan Edwards said: “This report shows why it is so important that Wales keeps its economic links with Europe following Brexit. Our economy, and therefore people’s jobs and wages, are heavily driven by our exports and the majority of those exports go to the EU.
“Fewer exports in the future mean businesses will become less successful, making employing staff more difficult. Once people start earning less in one industry, there will be less money to spend which will impact on other sectors too.
“It is crucial that we prevent this cycle from starting in the first place by keeping our economic links with