Wales mustn’t sink into era of decline

WALES has more to lose from Brexit than any other UK nation or region. That’s the conclusion of an analysis by the Demos think tank.

Its findings will not come as a surprise to the men and women who spent the months leading up to last June’s referendum arguing passionately for Wales to vote to remain in the EU.

The researchers concluded that Wales stands to suffer from Brexit because of our very high level of exports to the EU and our higher than average reliance on EU funds.

More than 60% of our exports go to Europe – the second highest proportion of any UK region.

We also receive the most substantial contribution of EU structural funds. This equates to nearly 1% of our annual Gross Value Added (GVA).

Such statistics will send people who campaigned for a vote against Brexit into a deeper depth of gloom as tomorrow’s triggering of Article 50 nears.

If the benefits are lost – even if the UK Government manages to strike new trade deals – Welsh exporters will have to scramble to forge relationships in new markets.

Organisations which have come to depend on EU funding will also look to the future with trepidation. Will they find it harder to win similar levels of support if austerity growls on and the purse-strings are held by sceptical Whitehall mandarins?

But such challenges are unlikely to starve Brexit voters of sleep. The run-up to the referendum was defined by earnest democratic debate in which voters listened to the hopes of the Out team and the warnings of Remainers.

A majority of people in Wales and England opted to leave. The risks were laid out with clarity and conviction but more people were won over by the case for leaving.

Researchers are scratching their heads and asking why Wales – a nation with so much to lose – voted to leave. Historians will continue to debate this in the decades to come.

The vote was proof of the importance a giant swathe of the public attached to issues such as sovereignty. The referendum also illustrated the depth of feeling about free movement of people.

There will be grave disappointment if the upbeat vision of post-Brexit life painted by Out campaigners turns out to be a pipe dream.

There will be dismay if major employers move operations out of Wales and relocate in the EU. It will also be disastrous if disillusionment with the new Britain leads to the emergence of caustic populists who seek to divide our increasingly pluralist society.

This is not the time for politicians who hoped to build a caring, prosperous, tolerant and internationalist country to quit the stage. More than ever, we need people of generosity and goodwill to enter political debates.

Public representatives need to listen closely to the electorate and understand why so many decent people voted for Brexit. And they should not abandon efforts to cement our very best values at the heart of this nation as a season of epic change unfolds.