Can Theresa May lead UK into a land of post-Brexit sunshine?
COLUMNIST
IDREAMED last night that a version of the Arc De Triomphe had been erected in central London to celebrate the completion of Brexit.
I can’t quite remember if it was Theresa May’s idea. It’s hard to imagine her signing-off on the expense of such a monument.
But leading lights in the campaign to pull the UK out of the EU must at least have the odd bathtime daydream about statues one day going up in their honour. If there is space for Oliver Cromwell on the Westminster grass, could a patch of ground be found for a plinth with Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson riding a giant bronze bulldog?
For all I know, eurosceptic donor Arron Banks is besieged with designs for celebratory sculptures by artists in search of their next commission.
People who can’t wait for the country to cut the cord with Brussels do see this as a moment of liberation, an incredible rescuing of sovereignty from the clutches of an unelected elite intent on the eradication of national identity.
Theresa May did not support the Out team in the referendum but she now portrays Brexit as a grand countrywide adventure rather than a moment likely to break up the UK and trigger the greatest decline in global influence since Suez.
When she delivered her East Kilbride speech yesterday in advance of tomorrow’s triggering of Article 50 she spoke of the different nations of the UK acting together as an “unstoppable force”.
She is investing incredible energy in trying to keep Wales and Scotland cheerful and optimistic about Brexit, even though the Treasury less than a year ago was publishing terrifying prognostications about the consequences of leaving the EU.
For some reason, this reminds me of the moment in The Sound of Music when Julie Andrews starts singing “I have confidence in sunshine!”
Credit where it’s due, the PM is right to recognise the urgency of holding back the forces of pessimism. A collapse in investor confidence would have devastating consequences for Wales, which according to the think tank Demos has more to lose from Brexit than any other UK nation or English region.
When Mrs May won the Tory leadership election she could have tried to kick Brexit into the long grass by saying that the UK would leave the union when a set of key criteria were met (for example, that the deficit was eliminated and a new version of single market membership had been agreed). There’s a solid precedent for this type of manoeuvre. Gordon Brown did something similar when he imposed the five criteria that would have to be met before Britain joined the euro.
Interestingly, Labour has reached for this playbook, yesterday unveiling “six tests” that will determine whether the party will support any final Brexit deal. They give Labour plenty of opportunity to oppose the outcome of the negotiations about to be triggered.
For example, one question is: “Does it deliver the ‘exact same benefits’ as we currently have as members of the Single Market and Customs Union?”
It is hard to conceive of the EU agreeing to a deal which provides the “exact same” advantages that come with EU membership. If it did, why would millions of Brussels-loathers from Warsaw to Bordeaux not demand an identical settlement?
Another test is: “Does it deliver for all regions and nations of the UK?”
First Minister Carwyn Jones has demanded an epic overhaul of how the EU works in the wake of Brexit and is adamant that powers today held by Brussels in areas such as agriculture must be transferred to the Assembly and not grabbed by Westminster. Any deal that fails to satisfy Welsh Labour is unlikely to pass this test.
If Mrs May was convinced Brexit would impoverish the country she now leads she could have sought an election in pursuit of a mandate for a new negotiation of EU membership terms after the damp squib of David Cameron’s earlier effort.
Instead, she has accepted that in a historic referendum a clear majority of people voted to leave the EU. She bows to the majesty and perhaps thinks: “Can 17.4 million people be wrong?”
The UK has to avoid falling into a chasm, and she appears to have decided the best approach is to take a running jump.
If the country can land safely on the other side she will have accomplished a feat worthy of an Olympian. She might not get a gold medal, but in 20 years’ time a group of schoolchildren on a tour of the House of Commons may stop by a sculpture of Mrs May to be told by their guide, “That’s the PM who took us out of the EU.”
Of course, by that time, it’s very possible that the next question might be: “The EU – what was that?”