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HISTORY is always written by the victors.
And memories of success – such as achieving Premier League safety – can often gloss over how grim things were.
It is why that it’s easily forgotten that this is not the first time Swansea enter the final nine games of the season a little too close to the bottom three for comfort.
It goes without saying that this has been – by and large – a campaign that hasn’t been matched by the previous five in the Premier League. They’ve already conceded almost double the paltry 34 in their first season following promotion, for example.
But it is wrong to say this is all a new experience for the club, because it was only three years ago that Swansea faced the same pressure and panic over their points tally as they do going into Sunday’s huge home clash with Middlesbrough.
Swansea are currently three points off the relegation places after 29 games played, recent defeats to survival rivals Hull and Bournemouth leaving plenty wondering how the side will be able to plot a route to survival. But they managed it not so long ago.
Back in March 2014, the initial bounce of Garry Monk’s appointment had appeared to have worn off, the delirium of his 3-0 debut win over rivals Cardiff slowly turning into dread as they lost 2-1 to West Brom, themselves fighting to avoid the drop.
It left Swansea with 29 points from 29 games – only two more than they have now. Although they were four points rather than three clear of the drop zone, Sunderland had games in hand – just as Middlesbrough do now.
How they stood in March 2014...
13 Hull City P29 .......................... Pts 30 14 Swansea City P29 .................. Pts 29 15 Norwich City P30 .................... Pts 29 16 West Brom P29 ....................... Pts28 17 Palace P29 .............................. Pts 28 18 Sunderland P27 ...................... Pts 25 19 Fulham P30 ............................ Pts 24 20 Cardiff City P30 ....................... Pts23
It was to get worse before it got better. The defeat to West Brom was followed by defeat on the road at Everton that kept the gap as it was before something of a turning point came. Swansea were heading for expected defeat at the Emirates before an own goal from Mathieu Flamini – forced by the desperate attacking run of Leon Britton in the final moments – earned Monk’s side a point. By the following weekend, all looked rosy as Wilfried Bony and Jonathan de Guzman combined to comprehensively beat Norwich 3-0.
It was enough to convince all would be okay as they approached the final six games of the season, seven points clear of Cardiff in 18th.
Yet a scrappy, complacent defeat at Hull and a home loss to Chelsea after Chico Flores’ early sending off very much brought home the realisation the job was not done. With just four games remaining, Swansea were a mere three points above the drop zone.
What happened next was the true turning point, Swansea going to Newcastle and producing a superb display to come from behind and grab a 2-1 win, courtesy of a 90th minute penalty.
All of a sudden, they were six points clear going into the final three games.
The fact that Swansea were better than their scrap had suggested played out in the final few weeks. Safety was all but mathematically assured the following weekend when they thrashed Aston Villa in a 4-1 win, best remembered for Jonjo Shelvey’s outrageous 40-yard volley. Monk signed a new contract in the build-up to the final home game of the season, a 1-0 defeat to Southampton, before the 40-point barrier was broken and a mid-table finish sealed with a final-day 3-1 win at Sunderland where the signs for the future under the former captain looked good. They ended nine points clear, as shown below... 12 Swansea City P38 .................... Pts 42 13 West Ham United P38 .............. Pts 40 14 Sunderland P38 ........................ Pts 38 15 Aston Villa P38 ......................... Pts 38 16 Hull City P38 ............................. Pts 37 17 West Bromwich Albion P38 ...... Pts 36 18 Norwich City P38 ...................... Pts 33 19 Fulham P38 ............................... Pts 32 20 Cardiff City P38 ........................ Pts 30
THE SIMILARITIES
LOOKING back at that campaign, regardless of the worrying need for wins, there was something of a calmness and confidence at the Liberty that they had the squad and the man at the helm to achieve them. Though the side have come in for just criticism, and those recent successive away defeats have increased the scrutiny of the depth of talent, there is something of a similar feel at Swansea now.
The side have looked better prepared and understanding of their roles under Clement, as they had done under Monk following the disillusion and division at the end of the Michael Laudrup era.
They also turned to a talisman i attack in the shape of Bony whos prowess was vital on occasion, w hope that Fernando Llorente can off injury and a poor evening at Bournemouth to prove he can foll suit.
The importance of home fixture gaining the wins over Norwich an Aston Villa was obvious, with Sw improving Liberty form likely to b significant here; they have five of last nine at home with Boro offeri opportunity to equal a record four straight home wins in the Premier League.
THE DIFFERENCES
THERE is greater concern over th defence than then (they had conc 20 less goals after 29 games than Swansea have now). While Chico had his moments of hair-tearing frustration, he also had plenty of qualities and – crucially – had Ash Williams alongside him. Williams’ leadership was vital, as it was wit in-form senior players of the likes Leon Britton and Angel Rangel, p still at the club but not of the age have such an impact now.
WHAT LESSONS CAN BE LEARNED?
ONE of the interesting observations is the points of the relegated sides at this stage.
Although 40 points is given as the comfortable safety-sealing tally for sides to aim for, averages actually suggest a team can retain its top-flight status with 38. But it’s not an exact science predicting what will be needed to survive. Given the similarities between the two seasons of the sides struggling at the same stage, it might give an insight.
Indeed, after 29 games the sides that went down had 21 (Fuham), 25 (Cardiff) and 32 (Norwich) points respectively.
The bottom three currently have 20 (Sunderland), 22 (Boro) and 24 (Hull). Norwich were perhaps an anomaly because of their dreadful run at the end of the season, only picking up one more point in their last nine games, but it appears to be a useful barometer to suggest it might only need as little as 34 points to survive.
That would mean Swansea only needing two wins and one draw from their remaining fixtures, but that is hardly going to bring any guarantees.
It does though remind that – regardless of this weekend’s result – the battle to survive is unlikely to be without some further blows to belief. It happened last time – even if you don’t remember it.
As it stands now...
15 Leicester City P28 .................... Pts 30 16 Crystal Palace P28 ................... Pts 28 17 Swansea City P29 .................... Pts 27 18 Hull City P29 ........................... Pts 24 19 Middlesbrough P28 .................. Pts 22 20 Sunderland P28 ....................... Pts 20