CHIEF REPORTER MARTIN SHIPTON GIVES HIS VIEW ON THE POLL

OUR poll results should make uncomfortable reading for those who want Labour to win the next general election.

General elections are not won or lost in Wales, but we are entitled to draw more generally applicable conclusions from data which points to Jeremy Corbyn’s unpopularity in Welsh Labour working class heartland seats.

A Labour Party that cannot rely on the support of the bulk of working class voters cannot hope to win a general election.

It’s important to remember that the party grew out of the trade union movement, which was established to represent working people at a time when many employers exploited their workers in a way that today would be considered wholly unacceptable.

Even when the trade union movement was a powerful force in the land, representing the great majority of the workforce, Labour was unable to become what Harold Wilson described as “the natural party of government”.

There were too many working class Conservatives who couldn’t bring themselves to sign up for a left-wing agenda.

Today’s Britain is greatly different from the one that Wilson served as Prime Minister in the 1960s and 1970s.

There have been many social changes, with fewer working class people able to get well-paid, secure employment of the kind that was possible when the coal mines, steelworks and shipyards were flourishing, and when manufacturing industry was booming.

Despite high employment rates, many jobs today are low paid, with insecure conditions and little or no union organisation to push for improvements.

Yet, many workers at the lower end of the employment market do not see Labour as a party that could help them improve their lot.

Our poll reveals the stark truth that for many Welsh working class voters, Jeremy Corbyn has no attraction as leader of the Labour Party. In reaching such a conclusion, it is unlikely they are out of kilter with much working class sentiment in other parts of Britain.

This is a bad omen for Labour’s chances at the next general election, due to be held in 2020.

With so many saying they think Mr Corbyn should go, it’s reasonable to assume that the party will lose votes as a consequence. And when votes are lost, seats will inevitably go the same way.

The fact that the Labour leader is more popular among middle class voters also reflects the new reality: that most members of the party work in the public sector, with a heavy sprinkling of teachers, social workers and health professionals.

While dedicated to a public service ethos, such people also tend to be better educated and have a more internationalist approach than those living in traditional working class communities that have often been left behind by social change.

Many people from such communities are also socially conservative and susceptible to being influenced by populist – more accurately reactionary – politicians and newspapers.

The likes of Mr Corbyn, who makes a virtue out of opposing populist ideas, has no appeal to such people.

In the 1990s New Labour under Tony Blair found a way to attract working class voters with aspirations.

When the party returned to government it gained the confidence of the City and then invested heavily in public services and boosted the take-home pay of low paid workers through tax credits, giving them tangible reasons to vote Labour.

This was only possible because in Blair the party had found a leader who seemed decisive in a good way and was presentable.

Jeremy Corbyn, while personally charming, does not come across as a leader and could never win a general election.

Any Labour leader will be attacked by the right wing media, but charisma and an aura of competence can make that irrelevant.

The party will not win a general election until it has a leader with both attributes.